25年广东电力交易方案对核电影响：超额回收边际略松+变动成本补偿打折=电价波动平滑

Summary of the Conference Call on Guangdong Power Trading Scheme Impact on Nuclear Power Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the nuclear power sector in Guangdong Province, which is a significant region for nuclear energy in China. The focus is on the long-term electricity pricing for 2025 and its implications for nuclear power assets [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Importance of Electricity Pricing - The long-term electricity price for 2025 is crucial, especially for nuclear power, due to its relatively rigid cost structure. Significant fluctuations in electricity prices can impact asset expectations for the coming year [2][3]. 2. Current Pricing Context - Guangdong's reference electricity price is notably high at 0.46 yuan per kWh, compared to the national average of around 0.40 yuan. This makes Guangdong particularly sensitive to price volatility [2][3]. 3. Recovery Mechanisms - Two key mechanisms in the marketization scheme are highlighted: the excess recovery mechanism and the variable cost compensation mechanism. The recovery rate for excess pricing was 85% last year, but is expected to be lower this year [3][4]. 4. Cost Compensation - The variable cost compensation mechanism aims to equalize cost differences among various power generation types. Last year, nuclear power received 100% compensation, while this year it is expected to be around 85% [4][5]. 5. Impact of Pricing Mechanisms - The overall impact of these mechanisms suggests that the volatility in nuclear power pricing will be less than that of the market price fluctuations. The expected price drop for nuclear power is estimated to be around 70-80% of the market price drop [4][14]. 6. Future Expectations - The anticipated increase in electricity trading volume from 320 billion kWh last year to 380 billion kWh this year indicates a growing market. This increase is expected to enhance the stability of electricity pricing [19][20]. 7. Regulatory Environment - There is a focus on the regulatory measures being implemented to ensure the alignment of wholesale and retail electricity prices, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in the sector [20][21]. 8. Long-term Value and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term value of nuclear power assets remains intact. Investors are encouraged to monitor developments in the nuclear sector, particularly in major regions like Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu [6][18]. Other Important Content - The conference emphasized the importance of understanding the detailed mechanisms of the electricity pricing scheme and its implications for nuclear power profitability. The discussion also included insights into the expected contributions from new projects in the coming years, which could further enhance the sector's performance [18][19][22]. - The call concluded with an invitation for further inquiries regarding the detailed calculations and implications of the Guangdong electricity pricing scheme on nuclear power [23].