大摩-全球及中国经济和市场展望

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - M Foundation - Morgan Stanley Asia Limited - China Chief Economist,邢自强 Core Views and Arguments - Economic Outlook - Slowing Economic Growth: The report predicts a slowdown in economic growth over the next two years due to the impact of US tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures. - Deflationary Pressure: The report highlights the persistent deflationary pressure in China, exacerbated by factors such as overcapacity and low capacity utilization. - Policy Stimulus: The report suggests that the government may implement a third round of policy stimulus focused on the demand side to counteract the deflationary pressures. - US Tariffs: The report predicts that the US will gradually increase tariffs on Chinese imports, with the effective tariff rate reaching 26% by the end of 2025 and 36% by the end of 2026. - Impact of Tariffs: The report analyzes the potential impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy, including the impact on GDP growth, inflation, and policy measures. - Real Estate Market: The report discusses the challenges facing the real estate market, including the need for adjustment to adapt to demographic changes and the ongoing adjustment process. - Policy Framework: The report notes that the policy framework remains supply-side focused, with a focus on industrial loans and infrastructure investment. - Income Growth: The report highlights the slowdown in income growth, particularly for low-income groups, and its impact on consumption. - Debt Levels: The report discusses the rising debt levels and the potential for further increases due to the deflationary environment. - Fiscal Pressure: The report notes the worsening fiscal pressure, with declining tax revenue and increased spending. - Stock Market: The report emphasizes the importance of breaking deflation to boost the stock market, drawing parallels with Japan's experience. - Policy Measures: The report discusses the potential policy measures, including the first round of debt substitution and the expected second and third rounds of policy stimulus. - Reflation Path: The report outlines the potential path to reflation, including the expected progress and challenges. - New Three Major Projects: The report proposes three major projects to break deflation, including real estate inventory reduction, social welfare reform, and fertility subsidies. - Structural Opportunities and Challenges - Real Estate: The report discusses the long-term demand for housing and the potential for growth in the real estate market. - Population: The report analyzes the demographic changes and their impact on the economy, highlighting the potential for labor quality improvement and industrial automation. - Regulatory Reset: The report discusses the potential investment opportunities in the wake of the regulatory reset, including social equity, national security, financial risk, and environmental risk. - Urbanization 2.0: The report discusses the potential for more digital, green, and market-oriented urbanization. - Consumer Blueprint: The report outlines the potential consumer trends and opportunities in the next few years. - Global Trends - Technology: The report discusses the rapid spread of AI technology and its potential impact on productivity. - Decarbonization: The report discusses the potential for clean power to surpass fossil fuel power generation by 2030. Other Important Content - Data and Charts: The report includes various data and charts to support its analysis, including GDP growth rates, inflation rates, trade data, and policy measures. - Comparisons: The report makes comparisons with other countries, such as Japan, to provide context and insights. - Predictions: The report includes predictions and forecasts for the future, based on the analysis and data presented in the report.