惠誉博华信用展望：航空公司

Summary of Huiyu Bohua's 2025 Financial Outlook Seminar Industry Overview - The seminar focused on the aviation transport industry in China, highlighting its recovery since 2023 and projecting growth into 2025 [2][3][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - Industry Recovery: The total turnover of China's aviation transport industry dropped to 599 billion tons per kilometer in 2022 but rebounded with a 98.3% increase in 2023, recovering to about 92% of 2019 levels by the end of 2023 [2][3]. - Passenger Traffic Growth: From January to October 2023, the number of domestic flights increased by 20.6% compared to 2019, with overall traveler numbers up by more than 15% [3][4]. - International Flights: International flights reached 65% of 2019 levels, with significant increases in flights to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [4][6]. - Cargo Oil Turnover: Cargo oil turnover increased by 27% from January to October 2023, with international airlines seeing a 47.3% increase due to strong export support [5][6]. Future Projections - Domestic Airlines: Demand for domestic airline travel is expected to improve significantly in 2025, driven by policy benefits and rising disposable income [5][6]. - International Airlines: The recovery of international airlines is anticipated to accelerate, with the potential for faster growth than domestic flights due to easing travel restrictions and policy changes [6][7]. - Supply Constraints: The supply of aircraft has not met expectations, with a projected average increase in supply dropping to about 2% from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. Financial Performance - Profitability Trends: The aviation industry experienced a loss of over 1,700 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected return to zero profit in 2024 and a forecasted operating income increase of about 6% in 2025 [11][12][13]. - Ticket Pricing: Average ticket prices have seen a decline, with a 12% drop in prices from October to November 2023, which may stimulate demand from price-sensitive travelers [11][12]. - Government Subsidies: The industry remains highly dependent on government subsidies, which are expected to decline due to reduced local government financial capacity [15][17]. Company Analysis - Sample Companies: Seven listed companies were analyzed, accounting for 76% of the industry's income and over 60% of total turnover [13][14]. - Capacity Increases: The overall capacity of sample airlines increased by 20.5% in the first three quarters of 2024, with significant growth among major airlines [14][15]. - Debt Levels: The total debt of the aviation industry is approximately 790 billion yuan, with over 60% being long-term debt, indicating a high debt burden [16][17]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the aviation industry in 2025 is positive, with expectations of demand recovery, improved profitability, and a tightening supply-demand gap, despite ongoing challenges such as ticket price pressure and reduced government subsidies [17].