Key Points Industry/Company Involved - Industry: Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and Restructuring - Company: Not specified, but the discussion is focused on the broader industry trends and historical patterns of M&A and restructuring. Core Views and Arguments - M&A and Restructuring Wave: The discussion highlights the current wave of M&A and restructuring as a significant opportunity, drawing parallels to historical trends. - Policy and Economic Factors: The M&A wave is attributed to policy support, particularly the "Nine Measures on M&A" and the Politburo Standing Committee's endorsement of M&A activities. - Valuation Impact: M&A can lead to increased valuations, as seen in historical US M&A waves. - Economic Cycles: The discussion emphasizes the correlation between economic cycles, policy cycles, and industry cycles with M&A waves. - US Historical Waves: The analysis delves into the five historical US M&A waves, examining economic, policy, and industry factors behind each wave. - China's M&A Waves: The presentation also covers China's three M&A waves, highlighting industry shifts and policy changes. - Insights and Implications: The presentation concludes with insights on the current M&A environment, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right direction and considering the stage of the M&A wave. Other Important Content - US M&A Waves: The presentation provides detailed information on the five US M&A waves, including economic, policy, and industry factors. - China's M&A Waves: The analysis covers China's three M&A waves, highlighting key trends and policy changes. - Valuation Premiums: The discussion compares valuation premiums in the US and China, noting higher premiums in China. - M&A Risks: The presentation mentions potential risks associated with M&A, such as high premium rates and speculative transactions. References - [1]: "We have gained insights from studying the history of M&A and restructuring across three centuries from the 19th to the 21st century." - [2]: "The direct driver of this M&A and restructuring wave is the 'Nine Measures on M&A' in September, and the final decision was made at the Political Bureau meeting on September 26th." - [3]: "The core reason for the valuation gap is that your core business remains unchanged, and the valuation of your existing company is naturally only the valuation of the existing assets. The market believes that your business has not changed, so why should your valuation change?" - [4]: "Through M&A and restructuring, companies can tell a story of incremental growth and take advantage of the opportunity to achieve rapid valuation increases." - [5]: "The five US M&A waves occurred in the 1900s, 1920s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s." - [6]: "The M&A wave is often along the direction of emerging technologies or high-tech industries." - [7]: "The first US M&A wave occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [8]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [9]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [10]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [11]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [12]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [13]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [14]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [15]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [16]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [17]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [18]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [19]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [20]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by a stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [21]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [22]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [23]: "The Western countries actually tacitly allowed cross-border M&A and even helped domestic enterprises to carry out cross-border M&A in the dark, because their core purpose is to challenge the market." - [24]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [25]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [26]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [27]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [28]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [29]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [30]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [31]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [32]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [33]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [34]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [35]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [36]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [37]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [38]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [39]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [40]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [41]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [42]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [43]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [44]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [45]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [46]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [47]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [48]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [49]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [50]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [51]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [52]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [53]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [54]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [55]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [56]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [57]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [58]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [59]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [60]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [61]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [62]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [63]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [64]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [65]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [66]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [67]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [68]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [69]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [70]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [71]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [72]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [73]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [74]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [75]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [76]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [77]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [78]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [79]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [80]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [81]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [82]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [83]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [84]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [85]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [86]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [87]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [88]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [89]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [90]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [91]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [92]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [93]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [94]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [95]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [96]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [97]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [98]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [99]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [100]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [101]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [102]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [103]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [104]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [105]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [106]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [107]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [108]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [109]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of
美国百年并购浪潮：参考、启发与警示
美国银行·2024-12-03 16:53