未知机构：特朗普20时期哪些领域出口有望逆流而上-20241204

Summary of Key Points Industry Focus - The discussion revolves around the impact of the Trump 2.0 tariff policy on various industries, particularly those related to export from China to the United States through Mexico and Canada. [1][1] Core Insights and Arguments - The Trump 2.0 tariff policy is expected to not only increase the tax rates on imported Chinese goods but also enhance scrutiny on the sourcing of imported products into the U.S. This could lead to restrictions on transshipment trade. [1][1] - Key industries that may be affected include electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, vehicles, and plastics, which are likely to be significant in transshipment from China to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada. If a 25% tariff is implemented, exports from these sectors to Mexico and Canada may face obstacles. [1][1] - From a regional perspective, exports to non-major transshipment countries such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea in sectors like new energy, automotive, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation are expected to maintain strong growth and resilience during the Trump 2.0 period. [2][2] - From a product perspective, industries closely related to ASEAN's economic development, such as construction-related machinery, upstream raw materials, light consumer goods driven by demographic dividends, and electronic information intermediates like integrated circuits and display modules, are anticipated to sustain high export momentum. [3][3] Important but Overlooked Content - There are risks associated with the implementation of the Trump tariff policy exceeding expectations, as well as the potential for overseas demand to decline more than anticipated. [4][4]