Asian Tech_Thoughts from the supply chain on GB200 delays and GB300 status

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - Industry: Technology, specifically focusing on the supply chain dynamics related to AI server products, particularly GB200 and GB300 configurations - Companies Mentioned: Microsoft, Nvidia (NVDA), Hon Hai Precision, Quanta, Samsung, SK Hynix, Amphenol Core Insights and Arguments 1. Order Cuts from Microsoft: Microsoft has made significant order cuts for GB200 racks in 2025, shifting some demand to GB300, indicating a slower than expected ramp for GB200 [1][3] 2. Upstream Shipment Plans: The upstream supply chain is still planning for approximately 5 million Blackwell shipments in 2025, with supply expected to ramp up in Q4 2024 [1][3] 3. Blackwell Shipments Allocation: Of the 5 million units planned, 2.5 million are expected to be allocated to GB200/GB300 configurations, with flexibility in the upstream supply chain [1][3] 4. Supply Chain Constraints: - TSMC CoWoS-L Yield Issues: Yield issues related to TSMC's CoWoS-L are largely manageable, but some challenges remain with silicon bridge production [3][4] - HBM Supply Tightness: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) supply could be tight unless Samsung qualifies quickly, as SK Hynix may not meet the demand alone [3][4] - PMIC Design Changes: Recent changes in PMIC design and vendor may lead to initial supply hiccups, but overall capacity is expected to be adequate [3][4] 5. Downstream Supplier Risks: There is a significant gap between upstream component vendors and downstream ODM shipments for GB200, which may lead to supply constraints rather than demand issues [4][5] 6. Production Gaps: - GPU Baseboard Production: A gap is expected between Blackwell GPU chip production and baseboard shipments due to yield issues and PMIC supply tightness [4][5] - Amphenol Cartridge Ramp-Up: Slow ramp-up of Amphenol's cable cartridge could cause mismatches between GPU output and system production [4][5] 7. Liquid Cooling Components: No bottlenecks are anticipated in liquid cooling components, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 2025 [4][5] Other Important Insights 1. Market Share Allocation: The GB200 server market share allocation indicates that Hon Hai and Quanta will occupy 80% of the market share, with total implied B200 GPU consumption in 2025 estimated at 1.8 million units [6][8] 2. Potential Shortfalls: Hon Hai may face a shortfall of 2,000 rack-level volumes in 2025, translating to a 2-3% shortfall in total revenues compared to previous estimates [4][5] 3. Future Upgrades: The slow ramp of GB200 may delay the ramp of successor models, particularly GB300, which has meaningful spec upgrades [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential risks associated with the GB200 and GB300 product lines, highlighting the dynamics within the technology supply chain and the implications for key players in the industry.