医疗行业2025展望：拐点已至，政策空间可期

Key Points Industry Overview 1. Pharmaceutical Sector Performance: The pharmaceutical sector has started to outperform the broader market since the second half of 2024. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, with a more optimistic outlook compared to the second half of 2024 and the entire year of 2024. [1] 2. Factors Contributing to Sector Performance: Key factors include macroeconomic changes, normalization of anti-corruption measures, sustained support for innovative drugs through pricing policies, and geopolitical factors. [2][3] 3. Uncertainties: Uncertainties remain, particularly related to the Biologics Innovation and Access Act in the US and potential policy changes in China. [4] 4. Policy Expectations: Expectations for policy changes in China, including increased support for basic medical insurance and the pharmaceutical industry, are positive. [5] 5. Investment Environment: The global investment environment for biotechnology and healthcare sectors has improved, with a surge in M&A transactions and increased funding. [6][7][8] Key Investment Opportunities 1. Beta Opportunities: The pharmaceutical sector offers attractive beta opportunities, with a more optimistic outlook for 2025 compared to 2024. [7] 2. Alpha Opportunities: Alpha opportunities are expected to come from companies with potential for international expansion and those benefiting from a valuation and earnings rebound after international listings. [7] 3. Focus Areas: Key focus areas include cross-border M&A transactions, international clinical development and regulatory progress, and policy support for innovative drugs. [8] 4. Sector-Specific Opportunities: Opportunities in the prescription drug sector, medical device sector, and private healthcare sector are highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential. [9][10][11] 5. Catalysts: Large-scale M&A transactions and successful international listings are expected to act as significant catalysts for the sector. [16] Valuation and Market Dynamics 1. Valuation Levels: The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with limited downside risk and significant upside potential. [13] 2. Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with underweight positions in the sector compared to historical averages. [14] 3. Market Dynamics: The market is expected to see increased inflows of capital as policy changes and improved fundamentals attract investors. [34] Policy and Regulatory Environment 1. Medicare Reimbursement: The government is expected to continue supporting innovative drugs through policies such as increased reimbursement and favorable pricing. [20][21] 2. Drug Procurement: The government is committed to supporting the development of the pharmaceutical industry through policies such as drug procurement and price negotiations. [22][23] 3. Innovation Support: The government is actively promoting innovation in the pharmaceutical industry through various policies and initiatives. [24] 4. Prepayment System: The introduction of a prepayment system for medical institutions with good credit ratings is expected to provide support for the industry. [25] Global Investment Environment 1. Global Investment Trends: The global investment environment for biotechnology and healthcare sectors has improved, with increased funding and M&A activity. [26][27][28] 2. Cross-border M&A: The trend of cross-border M&A transactions is expected to continue, driven by the low valuation of high-quality innovative drug assets in China and strong demand from international buyers. [29][30][31] 3. Investment Opportunities: Opportunities for international clinical development and regulatory approval are expected to increase, driven by the improved global investment environment. [32][33]