Industry and Company Overview * Industry: Semiconductor * Company: US Semiconductors * Focus: Analysis of October 2024 semiconductor sales and outlook for 2024 and 2025. Key Points October Sales * Overall Sales: October monthly sales of 53.2 billion (down 12.9% MoM). * Seasonality: Below seasonality of down 7.8% MoM due to weaker Microcontroller and Analog sales. * Year-over-Year Growth: October sales increased 15.2% YoY, slightly above the estimate of up 14.8% YoY. Unit Growth * Ex-Discretes: October units ex-discretes were down 21.8% MoM, well below the estimate of down 9.6% MoM and seasonality of down 10.2% MoM. * Year-over-Year Growth: Units ex-discretes were up 6.0% YoY in October, well below the estimate of up 22.4% YoY. Pricing * Ex-Discretes: ASPs ex-discretes were up 12.9% MoM, above the estimate of down 3.6% MoM and seasonality of up 3.1% MoM. * Year-over-Year Growth: ASPs ex-discretes rose 10.5% YoY in October, above the estimate of down 5.7% YoY. Forecast * 2024: Maintaining the 2024 semi sales forecast of up 17% YoY, or 674.0 billion. End Markets * Data Center, AI, and Communication: Demand from these end markets remains solid, accounting for 27% of semi demand. Valuation * SOX Index: Currently trading at 28 NTM P/E, a 26% premium above the S&P 500. Additional Important Points * Microcontrollers: Driven the largest negative delta vs. the model, with sales down 29.5% MoM and units down 30.5% MoM. * Microprocessors: Driven the largest positive delta vs. the model, with sales down 2.5% MoM and units down 4.0% MoM. * Analog, DRAM, and NAND: Sales were down MoM due to lower units, partially offset by higher pricing.
US Semiconductors_ October Sales Slightly Above Our Forecast But Below Seasonality. Maintaining C24 Semi Sales of Up 17% YoY.
Berkeley·2024-12-10 02:48