TWA#49_ 4Q Data better than feared, but only marginally

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Gaming Industry: Focus on Macau and ASEAN gaming markets, with Macau's November GGR showing a year-over-year increase of 15% and expectations for December GGR to be weaker but already anticipated by investors [3][21] - Lodging and Real Estate: Insights into the performance of hotels in China, with signs of RevPAR bottoming out, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Indian property market [5][56] Key Insights and Arguments Macau Gaming - November GGR in Macau was better than expected, with a 15% year-over-year increase, while December is projected to show a decline of 2% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year [3][21] - The market is expected to react positively to a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in February, which could benefit Indian property stocks [3][6] - Sands China is preferred over competitors like MGM and Galaxy due to upcoming catalysts such as market share gains and dividend resumption [16][17] Hong Kong Property - October retail sales in Hong Kong declined by 3% year-over-year, which was better than the expected decline of 6% [4][40] - The introduction of a special scheme by HKMA allows for a higher maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for homebuyers, which may help stimulate the residential market [4][42] - Despite some positive indicators, overall sentiment in the Hong Kong property market remains weak, with zero presale applications recorded [36][44] China Hotels - The hotel sector in China is experiencing a short-term recovery, with RevPAR tracking at -5% year-over-year for Q4 2024, but expected to decline further in Q1 2025 [51][53] - The recovery rate for hotel occupancy is showing early signs of improvement, but a year-over-year decline is anticipated to continue into 1Q25 [52][53] Indian Property - The Indian property market is showing signs of recovery, with stocks up 5% week-over-week, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators such as government spending and vehicle sales [6][59] - Godrej is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity with expected presales growth of over 25% year-over-year, while Prestige is downgraded due to slower growth expectations [57][58] Additional Important Points - The potential impact of the upcoming RBI rate cut on REITs and property developers in India is significant, as it could enhance market sentiment [6][60] - The competitive landscape in Macau is shifting, with Sands China expected to outperform due to strategic advantages and upcoming renovations [16][17] - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong property market is challenged by external factors such as RMB depreciation and changing tourist spending patterns [4][40] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the gaming, lodging, and real estate industries in the Asia Pacific region.