港股互联网(二)：本地生活与OTA投资机会梳理

Key Points Industry and Company Focus * Industry: Local life and Online Travel Agencies (OTA) * Companies: Meituan, Xianyu, and Ctrip Core Views and Evidence * Local Life Sector: * Growth: The sector has seen significant growth with Meituan and Xianyu's stock prices doubling since the beginning of 2024. * Rationale: The year 2024 has been a strong year for tourism, leading to increased demand in local life services. * 2025 Outlook: The sector is expected to continue experiencing structural opportunities and long-term growth drivers in 2025. * To-Home Business: * Food Delivery: The overall food delivery market has seen stable growth with Meituan's market share remaining strong. * Non-Food Delivery: The flash sales segment within the non-food delivery category has seen significant growth, with Meituan's flash sales business growing at three times the rate of food delivery. * To-Store Business: * Takeout and Group Buying: The takeout and group buying segment is expected to see continued growth driven by consumer habits and increased competition from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou. * Service Consumption: The service consumption segment is expected to see moderate growth with a potential to reach 10% market penetration in the next 3-5 years. * OTA Sector: * Growth: The OTA sector has seen strong growth, outperforming hotel, aviation, and duty-free sectors. * Rationale: The sector's platform model and mature e-commerce business contribute to its strong performance. * 2025 Outlook: The sector is expected to continue growing with strong growth potential in overseas and domestic markets. * Ctrip: Ctrip is expected to benefit from its strong overseas and domestic market presence, with potential for long-term growth. * Ctrip vs. Ctrip: Ctrip is expected to outperform Ctrip in terms of user scale and growth potential, with a potential for valuation reversal. Other Important Points * Meituan's Local Business: Meituan's core local business is expected to see continued growth with a revenue growth rate of 20-30% and an operating profit margin of 20-25%. * Overseas Business: Meituan's overseas business is expected to see some growth and contribution in the fourth quarter of 2024, with potential for further growth in 2025. * Ctrip's Overseas Business: Ctrip's overseas business is expected to contribute 9-10% to its revenue in the short term, with potential for growth to 15-20% in the long term. * Ctrip's Profitability: Ctrip's profitability is expected to be strong with a clear trend and long-term growth potential. * Ctrip vs. Ctrip: Ctrip is expected to outperform Ctrip in terms of user scale and growth potential, with a potential for valuation reversal.