信创-顺周期-AI应用-三重叠加共铸产业机遇

Key Points Summary Industry and Company Involved - Focus on Information Technology (IT) sector, particularly in China - Specific companies mentioned: 大梦数据 (Dreamdata), 金山办公 (Kingsoft Office), 普联软件 (Prosoft), 金蝶国际 (GoldenBridge), 中旺 (Zhongwang), 左成 (Zuocheng), 管他公司 (Guantecom), 明月云公司 (Mingyueyun), 华大酒店 (Hua Dajian), 盖伦店 (Gailun Dian), 税友 (Shuiyou), 焦点科技 (Focus Technology) Core Views and Arguments - Triple convergence of innovation, cyclicality, and AI applications creates industry opportunities - Short-term opportunities: Policy-driven new creation fields, such as government and public sector information construction, focusing on Dreamdata and Kingsoft Office. - Medium-term opportunities: Economic recovery-driven cyclicality, focusing on industrial software and high-end management systems (such as central and state-owned enterprise ERP), recommending Prosoft and GoldenBridge. - Long-term opportunities: Industrial revolution brought by AI technology, focusing on To C and To B directions, To C recommending Kingsoft Office, Exoplanet Technology, Cai Xun Stock, and科大讯飞 (科大讯飞), To B recommending GoldenBridge, Dingjie Software, etc. - GoldenBridge has solid fundamentals and advantages in the innovation field, actively布局 AI applications, and has a cost-effective valuation. - Industrial software field, Zhongwang and Zuocheng are worth paying attention to, both focusing on Feidi and Feiyi directions, the market space in China is huge. - Construction and real estate IT companies benefit from national policy support for economic recovery, recommending to pay attention to Guantecom and Mingyueyun, both companies are at historical low valuations. - AI technology-driven is an important investment theme in the future, focusing on the application of AI in enterprise-level scenarios (code generation, marketing, finance, human resources) and innovative applications in the To C field. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Computer board investment opportunities mainly focus on the following aspects: - Short-term: Policy-driven new creation opportunities, such as government and public sector information construction. - Medium-term: Economic recovery-driven cyclicality. - Long-term: Industrial opportunities brought by AI technology revolution. - Specific investment targets in the new creation field: - Government and public sector: Dreamdata and Kingsoft Office. - Key application scenarios: Industrial software and high-end management systems (such as central and state-owned enterprise ERP), recommending Prosoft and GoldenBridge. - GoldenBridge's advantages in innovation and other aspects: - Solid fundamentals, double-digit growth even in an adverse economic environment. - Successful replacement of Weichai SAP system in the innovation field. - Active layout of AI applications in enterprise-level scenarios. - Cost-effective valuation, about 20 times next year. - Industrial software companies worth paying attention to: - Zhongwang and Zuocheng, focusing on Feidi and Feiyi directions. - Company valuation and growth potential in the current market environment: - Reasonable valuation, PS ratio about 13 times. - Expected to achieve 30% growth this year, but the uncertainty of military orders may affect this goal. - Business growth is real, similar to the situation last year, where the growth in the first quarter was significant. - Expansion of market share through mergers and acquisitions, and active expansion into humanoid robots and AI-related fields. - Focus on varieties in the industrial software field: - Hua Dajian and Gailun Dian, both with high potential in the EDA field. - Impact of national policies on construction and real estate IT companies: - Highly support economic recovery, especially through stabilizing the real estate and stock markets to promote economic development. - Construction and real estate IT companies benefit from this, as they usually adopt a light asset model and do not have huge bankruptcy or operating risks. - Recommend focusing on Guantecom and Mingyueyun, both with high cost-effectiveness. - Prospects for the development of general software and AI technology-driven: - GoldenBridge and Shuiyou are worth paying attention to. - AI technology is the most important theme in the future. - AI applications are in the early stage, but hardware infrastructure, front-end applications (ASP APP), and back-end data centers have been laid out in a certain amount. - Large model technology performance has improved significantly and the cost has decreased exponentially, indicating that in the future, 5 to 10 times of big bull stocks will be born. - Continue to closely monitor the development of this field. - Significant progress and trends in AI technology in commercial applications in recent years: - Many large application manufacturers have launched various AI intelligent products since September 2023. - Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other companies have launched their own AI products, which have shown excellent commercial value and productivity improvement. - In the next three to five years, AI applications will be an important field worth paying attention to. - Specific directions and suggestions for investing in AI-related companies: - To C direction: Potential return is higher, but the certainty is relatively low. Recommend focusing on Kingsoft Office, Exoplanet Technology, Cai Xun Stock, and 科大讯飞. - To B direction: More emphasis on stability and long-term development. For example, Focus Technology, its IMAX business has achieved significant transformation and realization of value since last year, and is expected to reach 450 million yuan this year. - Important innovative fields in enterprise-level application scenarios include code generation, large marketing systems (including marketing, customer service), financial scenarios, and human resource management. Recommend focusing on GoldenBridge, Dingjie Software, etc., which can access OpenAI's large model and achieve significant growth. - Detailed introduction of specific companies and their performance in the AI field: - Kingsoft Office is currently promoting its AI membership service, which is an important representative in the To C scenario. - Exoplanet Technology originally focused on video editing software, but now through the introduction of AI technology, it has achieved significant revenue growth, such as its Cat Shadow Drawing products have reached tens of millions of yuan in revenue, with an increase of three to four times compared to last year. - Cai Xun Stock launched a product named "Gele", which generates music from pictures, and charges about one yuan per song. The number of users has reached tens of thousands, and it is expected to reach a million next year. - 科大讯飞 mainly focuses on the education scenario, through many years of accumulation to form a scale volume, even if the basic model does not win in the end, it still has a strong position in the education field, which is an important variety that can attack and retreat. - Focus Technology as a representative in the To B scenario, its IMAX business has reached 200 million yuan in contracts last year, and is expected to maintain high growth elasticity this year, with an expected profit of 4.5 billion yuan. - In addition, in the enterprise-level application, GoldenBridge has achieved significant growth with its Athena platform, and Dingjie Software, due to some of its business located in Taiwan, can access OpenAI's large model and achieve rapid development. - These companies all show strong development potential and should be focused on. - Successful cases worth learning from or referring to globally: - American Snowflake Company achieved significant results through carpet English technology, which has made breakthroughs in IPC and accumulated a large amount of sales database. - Large cross-border e-commerce platforms also actively adopt AI technology for product introduction, marketing copy generation, and translation and customer service, which are important innovative fields of AI applications at present.