25年国内光伏展望-及海上光伏发展前景

Summary of the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry in China is experiencing continuous demand growth in 2023, but a slowdown is expected in 2024 due to the end of the grid-connection rush and a deceleration in ground-mounted project growth [1][2] - The cost of PV components is decreasing, with large ground-mounted projects in the western regions costing less than 3 RMB per watt, although costs vary significantly due to land and other fees, with eastern regions being notably higher [1][3] - The implementation of time-of-use pricing policies has a significant impact on PV revenue, with western regions facing lower daytime prices and power restrictions, while eastern regions have a higher proportion of market transactions, resulting in a smaller impact on revenue [1][4][5] Challenges and Opportunities - The construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission corridors is limited, with some projects facing coordination difficulties, particularly in eastern regions where land resources are scarce and investment costs are high [1][6][9] - Offshore PV is seen as a future development direction, but it faces high costs and technical challenges. Shanghai has introduced subsidy policies to encourage development, yet costs remain a major barrier, approximately double that of onshore PV [1][7][10][11] - The application of single-axis tracking systems is expected to increase to enhance peak generation during early and late hours, improving overall revenue, although reliability and standardization issues need to be addressed [1][8][27] Future Outlook - The PV industry is expected to face grid-connection pressures, but government support for renewable energy development will likely stabilize installed capacity, albeit with slower growth [1][12] - The eastern regions are under pressure to meet consumption responsibility weights, with limited options for land use, leading to a focus on offshore development [1][17] - The anticipated growth in offshore PV projects may not see significant price subsidies or cost reductions, with current costs around 5 RMB per watt, potentially decreasing to 4.5-5 RMB per watt, but further reductions are unlikely [1][18] Technological and Economic Considerations - Offshore PV projects face multiple technical and economic challenges, including varying seabed geological conditions and complex approval processes, which can significantly increase costs [1][11] - The economic viability of single-axis and vertical installations is being researched, with findings indicating that single-axis systems can effectively address low-price periods, enhancing revenue during peak hours [1][20][21] Market Dynamics - The five major and six smaller power generation groups are adopting a more cautious approach to new energy installations, focusing on stricter return requirements and long-term profitability rather than merely fulfilling political tasks [1][24] - The market is evolving towards higher demands for PV projects, with long-term agreements providing limited predictability due to declining annual returns [1][25] Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry in China is at a critical juncture, balancing growth opportunities against regulatory, economic, and technological challenges. Continued government support and innovation in project execution and technology will be essential for sustaining momentum in the sector [1][12][24]