纺织服装度策略-写在分歧时，再谈纺服投资价值

Summary of the Conference Call on the Textile and Apparel Industry Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry has underperformed the A-share market from January to November 2024, with the brand apparel segment declining nearly 10%, lagging behind the overall A-share index by 16 points [1] - The average valuation of the apparel sector is at a historical low of 20 times P/E as of the end of November 2024 [1][2] Key Insights - The low performance is attributed to two main factors: - The apparel sector operates with high operational leverage, making it more sensitive to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment [2] - There is insufficient confidence in the sustainability of retail demand and overseas order recovery in the manufacturing segment [2] - Despite the current low valuations, there is potential for upward rebound in the apparel sector, particularly in the sportswear and OEM manufacturing segments [2][3] Specific Company Insights - Companies like Anta, Li Ning, and others in the sportswear segment are currently at low valuation percentiles, below 10% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) expectations have been significantly downgraded throughout the year, with sportswear and mid-to-high-end apparel experiencing less severe downgrades compared to other segments [3] Market Dynamics - Concerns exist regarding the increasing number of niche sports brands potentially disrupting the high concentration of the market [4] - However, consumer demand for high functionality and brand loyalty remains strong, which supports the existing market leaders [4] - The sportswear sector is entering a new product development cycle, with innovations such as Li Ning's carbon core technology being well-received in the market [4] Growth Potential - The growth of low-cost brands is expected to diminish, while established brands are likely to penetrate lower-tier cities effectively [6] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, leading to an increase in overall performance for leading companies [7] - Companies like Huayi Group are expected to see significant growth due to capacity expansion in regions like Vietnam and Indonesia [7] Investment Risks and Recommendations - Inventory risks in the apparel sector are currently manageable, with expectations of macroeconomic improvement similar to the end of 2022 [9] - The potential for a quarter-over-quarter improvement in performance is anticipated due to low base effects from previous quarters [10] - Recommendations include focusing on low-valuation, high-growth companies in the sportswear and men's apparel sectors, such as Li Ning, Anta, and Hai Lan Home [11] Conclusion - The textile and apparel industry is positioned for potential recovery, with specific segments showing promise for growth despite current challenges. Investors are encouraged to consider established brands with strong market positions and innovative capabilities as key opportunities moving forward.