供需矛盾加剧 聚丙烯后市如何演变

Summary of Polypropylene Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic polypropylene (PP) market in China for the period from January to November 2024, including market trends, supply and demand analysis, and future forecasts for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points Market Trends - In 2024, the price fluctuations in the domestic polypropylene market are smaller compared to 2022 and 2023, with a rebound after a decline and subsequent narrow fluctuations [1] - The highest price for PP filament in the East China market was 7,955 RMB per ton in July, while the lowest was 7,425 RMB per ton in early February [1] - The market sentiment improved in March due to expectations from the "Two Sessions" and supportive consumption policies, but trading activity slowed down later in the month [2] - The second quarter saw increased market activity due to macroeconomic policies and reduced supply pressure, leading to a noticeable price increase in May [2] - In the third quarter, the market faced downward pressure, with prices declining due to pessimistic sentiment among traders [2][3] Supply Chain Analysis - The production capacity of polypropylene in China increased significantly in 2020 and 2023, with growth rates of 16.78% and 13.88%, respectively. The growth rate is expected to slow to 8.2% in 2024, with a total capacity of 4,289 million tons [4][5]. - New production capacities are concentrated in South China, North China, and East China, with significant contributions from companies like Zhongjing Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical [5][6]. - The share of oil-based raw materials remains dominant, but the proportion of propylene from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) has increased from 12% to 23% in 2024 [6]. Production and Repair Data - The total polypropylene production from January to November 2024 is 3,164.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 213.85 million tons, or 7.25% [7]. - Repair losses in 2024 are higher than in the previous year, with a total of 627.05 million tons, reflecting a 35.89% increase [8]. - The Northeast region has a higher proportion of repair losses due to prolonged downtime of certain facilities [8]. Export and Import Dynamics - Domestic polypropylene exports reached 202.34 million tons from January to November 2024, an increase of 84.33% year-on-year [9]. - Conversely, imports decreased to 301.21 million tons, a decline of 10.88% compared to the previous year, due to lower domestic prices and increased local production [10]. - The export trend is expected to continue, but potential tariffs from the U.S. could impact future export volumes [9]. Demand Forecast - The apparent consumption of polypropylene is projected to grow by 7.99% in 2024, with total consumption expected to reach 3,587.54 million tons [12]. - The production of plastic products is also anticipated to increase, with a year-on-year rise of 2.98% in the first eleven months of 2024 [12][13]. - The demand for plastic products may improve due to upcoming holidays and macroeconomic policy stimuli, despite current weak demand [13]. Future Outlook - The release of new production capacities is expected to increase market supply pressure, although export growth may alleviate some structural supply issues [15]. - The overall economic growth in China will significantly influence the demand for polypropylene, with a potential slowdown in global demand due to China's economic conditions [15]. - The market is expected to experience price fluctuations, with prices likely to remain below 8,000 RMB per ton in the first half of 2024, followed by potential increases in the third quarter [16]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the production and repair schedules of new facilities, particularly those using coal-based raw materials, as they could significantly impact supply dynamics [14]. - The overall sentiment in the polypropylene market remains cautious, with traders and producers closely watching macroeconomic indicators and policy changes that could affect demand and pricing [15].