China Materials_ 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #151 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Tracker

Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Steel Industry in China - Date: December 12, 2024 - Source: Citi Research Key Points and Arguments Production Data - Total steel production in China from December 6 to December 12 was 8.6 million tons (mt), reflecting a -0.1% week-over-week (WoW) and -5.4% year-over-year (YoY) decrease - Breakdown of production: - Rebar: 2.18 mt, -2.0% WoW, -15% YoY - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): 3.20 mt, +1.0% WoW, +1.8% YoY - Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): 0.86 mt, -0.1% WoW, +3.4% YoY - Year-to-date total steel production was 427 mt, down -3.6% YoY [9][10] Inventory Levels - Steel inventory in China was 11.4 mt on December 12, down -1.8% WoW and -12.2% YoY - Breakdown of inventory: - Steel mills: 3.6 mt, -3.7% WoW, -15.6% YoY - Traders: 7.8 mt, -0.9% WoW, -10.6% YoY - Specific inventory for Rebar, HRC, and CRC: - Rebar: 4.2 mt, -4.4% WoW, -21.1% YoY - HRC: 3.1 mt, +1.0% WoW, -4.4% YoY - CRC: 1.5 mt, +0.2% WoW, +3.3% YoY [10] Apparent Consumption - Apparent steel consumption for the week was 8.8 mt, up +0.8% WoW but down -3.1% YoY - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: 2.4 mt, +4.4% WoW, -5.6% YoY - HRC: 3.2 mt, 0% WoW, -0.4% YoY - CRC: 0.8 mt, -0.9% WoW, +5.5% YoY - Year-to-date apparent consumption was 429 mt, down -3.2% YoY [11] Market Sentiment - Market expectations for demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious - The revised near-term sector pecking order is: Steel, Cement, Coal, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Lithium [9] Additional Important Information - The report includes analyst certifications and important disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest - Investors are advised to consider this report as one factor in their investment decisions [12][46] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call, focusing on production, inventory, and consumption trends in the Chinese steel industry, along with market sentiment and potential investment implications.