US Restaurants_ Weekly Traffic Jam_ Mixed Read Post Holiday Noise

Summary of US Restaurants Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the US Restaurants industry, specifically analyzing foot traffic trends and performance metrics for various restaurant segments including Fast Casual, Full-Service, and Limited-Service Restaurants (LSRs) [10][25]. Key Insights 1. Foot Traffic Trends: - For the week ending December 8, 2024, the year-over-year footfall growth in the industry was down 0.3% week-over-week, showing improvement compared to the lower single-digit declines observed prior to the holiday shifts [10]. - Fast Casual restaurants experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, while Full-Service restaurants remained flat year-over-year [10]. 2. Performance of Specific Brands: - Among LSRs, Starbucks (SBUX) saw a decline of 2%, while McDonald's (MCD) and Taco Bell were among the few mature concepts with positive traffic [11]. - Chili's reported a 22% increase, while Olive Garden experienced a decline of 4.9%, which was better than pre-holiday trends [11]. - CAVA was highlighted as the strongest performer with a 20.5% increase, while Chipotle (CMG) and Wingstop (WING) showed softer trends with increases of 8.9% and 7.6%, respectively [11]. 3. Monthly Footfall Trends: - November was noted as a slower month for the restaurant category, with both Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants showing slower growth compared to October [25]. - December data up to the 8th indicated stronger year-over-year performance compared to November, with LSR performance remaining unchanged year-over-year [25]. 4. California Market Insights: - Fast food footfall growth in California was in line with the national average, with attention drawn to the potential impact of AB 1228, which raised fast food workers' starting wages to $20/hour [36]. - The analysis included major brands such as Burger King, Carl's Jr., Chick-Fil-A, and others, assessing their foot traffic in California compared to the overall US [36]. 5. Consumer Engagement Metrics: - The Citi Research Innovation Lab aggregated daily consumer traffic data across restaurant chains, providing insights into near real-time brand health [25]. - The report emphasized the importance of trends over singular data points due to variability caused by weather, holiday shifts, and promotional activities [25]. Additional Noteworthy Points - The report included various figures illustrating total restaurant footfall trends over time, highlighting the fluctuations in consumer traffic across different months and years [14][35]. - The analysis also provided a heatmap of fast food footfall year-over-year, showcasing the performance of individual brands over specific weeks [40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the US Restaurants industry.