China Economic Perspectives_Mixed growth momentum in November

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the real estate and retail sectors as well as industrial production and exports. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Mixed Growth Momentum in November: The growth momentum in China showed a mixed picture in November, with property sales growth rebounding to +3.2% YoY, while new property starts remained weak at -26.8% YoY [3][7][46]. 2. Policy Support from CEWC: The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) emphasized "stabilizing growth" and boosting domestic demand through proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including a projected 2 percentage points increase in GDP from augmented fiscal deficit in 2025 [4][47]. 3. Retail Sales Performance: Retail sales growth softened to 3% YoY in November from 4.8% YoY in October, attributed to a higher base and earlier online sales promotions [37][46]. 4. Industrial Production Resilience: Industrial production growth edged up to 5.4% YoY in November, supported by strong performance in the electric machinery and auto sectors, despite a high base effect [9][36]. 5. Export Growth Deceleration: Export growth slowed to 6.7% YoY in November from 12.7% in October, influenced by a higher base and potential front-loading of shipments to the US to avoid tariffs [17][36]. 6. Investment Trends: Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth softened to 2.4% YoY in November, with infrastructure investment remaining strong at 9.8% YoY, while real estate development investment declined by -11.6% YoY [39][36]. 7. Inflation Trends: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation edged down to 0.2% YoY in November, indicating lingering disinflation pressure in China [20][46]. Other Important Insights 1. Future Monitoring: Key areas to watch include potential US tariff increases, annual work plans from Chinese government bodies, and economic data related to property sales and consumption during the Chinese New Year [5][27]. 2. Property Market Uncertainty: Despite improvements in property sales, uncertainties remain, particularly indicated by the top 100 developers' contract sales volume declining by -15% YoY in November [7][25]. 3. Credit and Monetary Policy: Total social financing (TSF) growth stabilized at a weak pace, with new renminbi loans picking up to Rmb580 billion in November, but still lower than the previous year [44][46]. 4. Consumer Behavior: The trend in online goods sales reversed, indicating a shift towards offline sales, with categories like cosmetics and clothing experiencing significant declines [37][46]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the real estate and retail sectors.