China housing_ No major narrative change from CEWC_Seems more decisive, but time inconsistency issue to linger into 2025

Summary of the Conference Call on China Housing Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China housing market and its recent trends as of December 2024, highlighting the economic conditions and policy responses affecting the sector [2][10][23]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Housing Price Trends: - New home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, a slight improvement from a 0.5% decline in October [2]. - Year-on-year, new home prices fell by 6.1% compared to -6.2% in October, while secondary home prices dropped 8.5% from -8.9% in October [2]. - New home prices have declined 9.6% from their peak in 2021, and secondary home prices have decreased by 16.1% [2]. 2. Market Activity Indicators: - The secondary home asking price index for tier-1 cities fell to 28.5 in mid-December from a peak of 36.9 in early October, indicating a potential continuation of price contraction [2]. - Residential floor space sold increased by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the best performance in over three years, while other housing activities remained sluggish [24]. 3. Policy and Economic Context: - The December Politburo meeting did not introduce major changes to housing policies, maintaining a focus on "stabilization" from previous meetings [10]. - The government is emphasizing risk mitigation and urban housing renovations, but concrete actions regarding housing de-stocking remain unclear [10][11]. - There is a call for a comprehensive strategy to stabilize the housing market, including a real estate stability fund and removal of home purchase restrictions [11]. 4. Future Outlook: - Real estate fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to decline by approximately 10% in 2024, with a similar trend anticipated for 2025 [24]. - The housing market is expected to face ongoing challenges, including insufficient replacement drivers for economic growth and prolonged adjustments in housing prices and quantities [11]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates a 27.3% drop in floor space started and a 40.1% decline in floor space completed, reflecting a broader slowdown in construction activity [24]. - The market is awaiting more detailed government plans regarding housing inventory purchases and funding mechanisms to support de-stocking efforts [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the China housing market, emphasizing the interplay between market dynamics and policy responses.