Higher Bases in Final Weeks; But 2024 Has Concluded

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Industry: Hong Kong/China Leisure & Lodging [9][31][48] - Current Performance: The weekly hotel RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in China was reported at -4% year-over-year for the week of December 8-14, 2024, compared to the same week in 2023. This represents a slight decline from the previous week's -2% [9][29]. Key Financial Metrics - RevPAR Trends: - 1Q24: -1% YoY (93% vs. 1Q19) - 2Q24: -5% YoY (93% vs. 2Q19) - 3Q24: -9% YoY (95% vs. 3Q19) - 4Q24 expected at -4% YoY (88% vs. 4Q19) - Full year 2024 expected at -5% YoY [29][30]. - Monthly Performance: - October 2024: -4% YoY (89% vs. October 2019) - November 2024: -3% YoY (82% vs. November 2019) - December 2024 expected at -5% YoY (94% of December 2019) [29][30]. Market Insights - Seasonality: The year-over-year decline in December has been narrower than anticipated, indicating a flatter seasonality trend [9]. - Future Expectations: There is a high likelihood of the year-over-year decline widening towards -6% in the final weeks of December 2024 [29]. Company Ratings - Stock Ratings Distribution: - Overweight/Buy: 38% (1,420 companies) - Equal-weight/Hold: 46% (1,731 companies) - Underweight/Sell: 16% (593 companies) [18]. - Specific Company Ratings: - Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT.O): Overweight (O) - BTG Hotels Group Co Ltd (600258.SS): Equal-weight (E) - H World Group Ltd (HTHT.O): Equal-weight (E) [42]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts: Dan Chee and Praveen K Choudhary provided insights into the current state of the leisure and lodging industry, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and expected trends in RevPAR [11][42]. Additional Notes - Data Publication Delays: STR expects delays in the publication of the next two data points due to holiday disruptions [10]. - Investment Considerations: Investors are advised to consider the potential conflicts of interest as Morgan Stanley engages in business with companies covered in their research [23][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the performance metrics, market insights, and company ratings within the Hong Kong/China leisure and lodging industry.