Americas Media_ 2025 outlook_ Reiterate Buy ratings on DIS, CMCSA, and FOXA

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the media industry, focusing on companies such as Walt Disney Co. (DIS), Comcast Corp. (CMCSA), Fox Corp. (FOXA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Paramount Global (PARA) [7][12][26]. Key Points and Arguments Walt Disney Co. (DIS) - Earnings Outlook: DIS is viewed as a quality earnings compounder trading at a discount to market multiples, with a 12-month price target of $137, up from $135 [62]. - Attendance Resilience: The company is experiencing resilience in attendance and pricing, particularly in its theme parks, with international attendance expected to grow due to easing comparisons from the Olympics [26][28]. - Political Revenue: DIS anticipates strong political revenue, with local political advertising expected to generate $280 million in F2025 [17][31]. - Operational Challenges: The company faces headwinds from hurricanes affecting attendance and competition from new attractions like Epic Universe [48]. Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) - Stock Performance: CMCSA has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and its telecom competitors, with a market cap-weighted decline of 14% [9]. - Valuation: The stock is rated as a "Buy" with a price target of $50, indicating a potential upside of 32% [3]. Fox Corp. (FOXA) - Political Revenue Growth: FOXA expects to achieve record political revenue in F2025, having already booked $400 million in F1H25, surpassing previous years [17][31]. - Advertising Revenue Drivers: The growth in advertising revenue is expected to be driven by local political spending, robust sports demand, and strong ratings for Fox News Channel [31][35]. - EBITDA Expectations: FOXA anticipates EBITDA growth driven by improving losses at Tubi and the absence of WWE rights, with a projected EBITDA of $3.4 billion for F2025 [31][41]. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - Neutral Rating: WBD is rated as "Neutral" with a slight price target increase, reflecting a cautious outlook amid competitive pressures [3]. Paramount Global (PARA) - Not Rated: PARA is currently not rated, with expectations of moderate growth in the coming years [3]. Additional Important Insights - Market Trends: The media sector has seen an average stock price increase of 10% in 2024, compared to a 23% increase in the S&P 500 [7]. - Risks: Key downside risks include intensified cord-cutting, sports rights cost inflation, macroeconomic weakness, and increased competition [41]. - Valuation Methodology: The valuation for DIS is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with various segments assigned different EV/EBITDA multiples [62]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of major players in the media industry.