China Materials_ 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #153 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing data from 100 sample mines located in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [4][6][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Production Data: - From December 12 to December 18, 2024, the thermal coal output from the sample mines was 12,583 kt, which represents a 0.5% decrease week-over-week (WoW) but a 5.0% increase year-over-year (YoY). On a lunar calendar basis, the output increased by 6.7% YoY [4]. - The output from individual regions was as follows: - Shanxi: 3,001 kt (+0.2% WoW, +1.4% YoY) - Shaanxi: 3,870 kt (-0.4% WoW, +14.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 5,712 kt (-0.9% WoW, +1.6% YoY) [4]. 2. Year-to-Date (YTD) Output: - The YTD thermal coal output was 605 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 0.5% decrease YoY. The breakdown by region is: - Shanxi: -11.0% YoY - Shaanxi: +3.2% YoY - Inner Mongolia: +3.5% YoY [4]. 3. Utilization Ratio: - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 93.2%, down 0.4 percentage points (ppt) WoW, but up 4.4 ppt YoY. On a lunar calendar basis, it increased by 5.9 ppt YoY [14]. - Regional utilization ratios were: - Shanxi: 87.2% (+0.2 ppt WoW, +0.9 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 98.8% (-0.4 ppt WoW, +12.3 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 93.0% (-0.8 ppt WoW, +1.4 ppt YoY) [14]. Additional Important Information - The report includes a CNY chart showing total coal inventory in the sample mines, which is crucial for understanding market dynamics [6]. - The data is sourced from Citi Research and Sxcoal, indicating a reliance on reputable industry data for analysis [6][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of considering both production and utilization metrics to gauge the health of the thermal coal market in China [4][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production trends, regional performance, and utilization ratios.