宏观周周谈：2025年国内经济与流动性展望

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy and its current challenges, particularly focusing on the residential sector and corporate sector dynamics. Key Points and Arguments Economic Challenges - The effective demand in China remains insufficient, with a negative demand gap projected to persist into Q4 of this year, indicating a supply-driven market rather than a demand-driven one [1][2][3]. - Economic difficulties have spread from the corporate sector to the residential sector, with wage income being the primary source of revenue for Chinese citizens, which has been adversely affected [2][3]. - The growth rate of residents' income has dropped to 5% in Q3, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from Q2, reflecting broader economic challenges [2][3]. Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference has acknowledged the need to confront these economic difficulties, suggesting that macroeconomic policies will likely intensify in 2025, potentially the strongest since 2010 [3][4]. - The concept of "super-cyclical adjustment" has been introduced, indicating a shift towards more aggressive policy measures to stabilize the economy [4][5]. - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with an increase in the fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in special government bond issuance, projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan [5][8]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is anticipated to shift towards a more supportive stance, with expectations of interest rate cuts and a more abundant liquidity environment in 2024 compared to the current year [5][6][7]. - The central bank is expected to implement a series of interest rate cuts, with a potential reduction of up to 50 basis points, aiming to enhance liquidity and stimulate economic activity [6][7]. Consumer Demand and Investment - There is a strong emphasis on boosting domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, as a core strategy to address the current economic slowdown [7][8]. - The government plans to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market and stock market, which are critical for overall economic stability [7][8]. - The anticipated consumer spending growth rate for next year is projected to be around 6.5%, significantly higher than the current rate of 3.5% [12][14]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate investment decline is expected to narrow, with projections indicating a decrease of 5% to 8% in investment, compared to previous years of more significant declines [14][15]. - The government aims to balance the need for new housing projects while controlling the overall increase in real estate supply [15][16]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious but proactive approach to addressing economic challenges, with a focus on enhancing consumer demand, stabilizing key markets, and implementing supportive fiscal and monetary policies to foster economic recovery in the coming year [11][12][19].