春运预售逐步升温！航空板块观点汇报

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the aviation industry, focusing on both domestic and international flight bookings and pricing trends during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season. Key Points and Arguments Domestic Flight Bookings - As of the latest data, domestic flight bookings have exceeded 3.64 million, indicating a strong demand as the Spring Festival approaches [1][2][3]. - The average daily domestic transport volume during peak periods is typically between 1.8 million to 2 million, suggesting that current bookings are robust [1][2]. International Flight Bookings - International travel has seen approximately 2.14 million entries and exits over a two-week period, averaging about 350,000 daily, which is a significant recovery [1][2]. - The international booking ratio is estimated to be over 50% to 60%, indicating a strong rebound in international travel demand [2][3]. Pricing Trends - Flight prices are observed to be relatively high, with a notable increase in prices leading up to the Spring Festival. The pricing trend is segmented into three phases leading up to the holiday [3][4]. - The pricing for international flights is expected to be about 20% higher due to increased operational costs, particularly for routes that require detours, such as those avoiding Russian airspace [9][10]. Airline Capacity and Supply Chain Issues - The total number of operational aircraft as of November is 4,198, a slight increase from previous months, but still reflecting challenges in the supply chain due to delays in new aircraft deliveries [11][12]. - The ongoing issues with aircraft parts and engine deliveries are expected to continue affecting the industry, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 7,000 to 8,000 flights due to these delays [14][15]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese airlines increasing their market share in international routes, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, as foreign airlines reduce their presence in China [8][9]. - The recovery of Chinese airlines is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with significant growth in long-haul international routes [8][10]. Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a noted shift in consumer travel patterns, with traditional popular destinations like Hainan and Sichuan seeing changes in demand dynamics due to increased flight options and evolving traveler preferences [5][6]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for the Spring Festival travel season is optimistic, with expectations of strong performance in both domestic and international markets, driven by high booking rates and resilient pricing strategies [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of the aging workforce in the aviation sector is highlighted, with a significant number of experienced workers retiring, leading to potential skill gaps in aircraft manufacturing and maintenance [14][15]. - The conference emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain developments, as they will continue to play a critical role in shaping the industry's recovery trajectory [13][14].