医药25年策略报告-星星之火燎原

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Biopharmaceutical industry * Company: Not specified Core Views and Arguments 1. Emerging Trends in the Biopharmaceutical Industry: * Commercial Insurance as a Key Driver: The development of commercial insurance is seen as a significant signal for the transformation of the industry from payment to financing end. It is expected to improve the payment environment for innovative medical devices and expand the supply of high-end medical services. The breakthrough in the development of commercial medical insurance is expected in 2025, marking a core policy shift in the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * Manufacturing Advantage and Engineer Redundancy: The manufacturing advantage and engineer redundancy in China are expected to make the country a global center for high-cost-performance manufacturing. [doc id='1'] * Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * Balanced Supply and Demand: After the capital retreat, balanced supply and demand will enable the value of the industry to be reflected, and a large number of new companies will be born with the help of capital. [doc id='2'] * Pharmaceutical Industry Sub-sectors: The performance and valuation of pharmaceutical companies are expected to improve from the second half of 2024. [doc id='9'] * Retail Pharmacy: The optimization of retail pharmacy supply and the improvement of consumer power are key to breaking the deadlock. The long-term growth of retail pharmacies is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the increase in industry concentration. [doc id='9'] * Traditional Chinese Medicine: Focus on the progress of international reform, the adjustment of the medical insurance catalog, and the changes in the operating cycle of enterprises. [doc id='9'] * Medical Aesthetics: The overall medical aesthetics industry is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the excess supply of the industry. [doc id='9'] * CXO Industry: The domestic CXO industry has demonstrated strong cost and capacity advantages. [doc id='9'] * Innovation Drug Industry: The development of commercial medical insurance will create new channels and development space for the innovation drug industry. [doc id='11'][doc id='12'] * Global Market: The domestic pharmaceutical industry has entered a new round of innovation product cycle after the PT1 antibody. Innovation and internationalization have become the main theme of the industry. [doc id='13'] * Chemical Synthesis: The chemical synthesis capabilities of Chinese CMO companies are improving. [doc id='14'] * New Business Opportunities: The adjustment of the industry has brought new opportunities for the development of pharmaceutical companies. [doc id='15'] 2. Multiple Cycles Resonance: * Macroeconomic Environment: The macroeconomic environment affects the overall operating environment of the industry through government fiscal policy and basic medical insurance financing. [doc id='1'] * International and Domestic Industry Environment: Changes in the international and domestic industry environment have prompted enterprises to adjust their investment direction, and different enterprises have different input-output cycles, and the industry is in a period of accumulation. [doc id='1'] * International Payment Environment: The clear incidence of diseases and the promotion of payment boundaries will promote the construction of a stable and predictable market environment for innovation. [doc id='1'] * Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'] 3. Basic Medical Insurance System: * Four Reforms: The basic medical insurance system is promoting four reforms to achieve flexible treatment and new medical insurance. [doc id='3'] * Medicare Negotiation: The overall negotiation rules determine the pricing system of innovative drugs under the national medical insurance system. [doc id='3'] * Pharmaceutical Product Price Formation Mechanism: The National Medical Insurance Administration has gradually relaxed the pricing system for innovative drugs and innovative medical devices since its establishment in 2018. [doc id='6'] * Payment Methods: The reform of payment methods, such as DRG and DIP, is expected to further improve the compatibility with innovation. [doc id='5'] * Medical Service Price Reform: The reform of medical service prices is expected to further improve the efficiency of medical insurance fund use and the rational allocation of medical resources. [doc id='5'] 4. Capital Market: * Capital Market Cooling: The global capital market has entered a cooling period due to the impact of the epidemic, inflation, and expectations for the future. [doc id='1'][doc id='6'] * IPO Market: The IPO market has experienced a downturn in the past few years. [doc id='7'] * Investment Trends: The investment trend has shifted from the United States to China, and the proportion of domestic investors has increased. [doc id='7'] * Investment in Emerging Fields: Investment in emerging fields such as globalization and new directions is increasing. [doc id='7'] 5. Policy and Market Changes: * Establishment of Expansion Edition: The establishment of the expansion edition of the system and the implementation of comprehensive registration system. [doc id='7'] * Capital Structure Changes: The proportion of USD funds seeking to go abroad is decreasing, and the proportion of RMB investment is increasing. [doc id='7'] * Investment in Different Rounds: The proportion of investment in C-round and pre-IPO rounds has increased. [doc id='7'] * IPO Trend: The IPO trend in Hong Kong and China is similar. [doc id='7'] * Impact of Policies and Market Changes: The global macro environment, the slowdown in economic growth after the epidemic, and the impact of policies and market changes have affected the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='7'] * Enterprise Investment Rhythm: Enterprises have increased their investment during the capital boom period, and the industry is still experiencing a process of industrial restructuring. [doc id='7']