低空经济-航空-民机-军工行业2025年投资策略

Summary of Low Altitude Economy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The low altitude economy market in China is projected to reach 500 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 6 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [1][11][10]. Key Points and Arguments - The low altitude economy is experiencing accelerated development in 2024, driven by policies, technological advancements, and capital influx [1][3]. - The industry is primarily composed of three sectors: general aviation, drone industry, and new electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with general aviation being the dominant sector [3][10]. - General aviation is showing robust growth, with passenger flight hours increasing by 55% year-on-year and manned flight hours up by nearly 35% [10][13]. - The drone industry has seen a remarkable increase, with cumulative flight hours reaching 23.11 million hours, a year-on-year growth of nearly 92% [10][35]. - eVTOL is identified as the core driver of the current low altitude economy, characterized by low cost, green technology, and automation, laying the foundation for future business models [10][15]. Financing and Investment Trends - The low altitude economy has shown significant growth in financing, with nearly 20 financing events in 2023 and 27 events in the first half of 2024, indicating strong market confidence [7][10]. - Many companies are still in early development stages, with high funding needs, as evidenced by multiple rounds of financing for key players [17][10]. Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to undergo three phases: 1. Initial Phase (2024-2025): Focus on product development, pilot flights, and airworthiness certification, with an emphasis on low altitude cargo applications [18]. 2. Market Expansion Phase (2026-2027): Initial market certifications and exploration of manned scenarios, alongside the establishment of operational networks [39]. 3. Maturity Phase (2028-2030): Formation of a complete supply chain ecosystem, with potential widespread adoption of manned commercial operations [39]. Infrastructure Needs - Development of the low altitude economy relies heavily on both information and physical infrastructure, including communication, navigation, and meteorological services, as well as regional weather stations and general aviation airports [40][20]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite progress, the low altitude economy is still in its infancy, facing challenges in infrastructure, configuration, and technology, with a long road ahead for commercialization [19][10]. - The industry is expected to benefit from government support and subsidies, similar to the new energy vehicle sector, which will enhance development prospects [17][10]. Conclusion - The low altitude economy in China is poised for significant growth, supported by strong policy backing, technological advancements, and increasing investment. However, challenges remain in infrastructure and market maturity, necessitating ongoing development and adaptation.