2025年海外经济与资产展望-动荡伊始

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * Global Economy and Asset Outlook for 2025 * US Economic Outlook under Trump's Return * European and Japanese Economic Outlook * Emerging Market Outlook * Investment Opportunities and Risks Core Views and Arguments * Global Supply Chain Reshaping: Emerging markets like India and Vietnam are expected to grow at around 6% in the next few years, driven by increased overseas investment from China, reshaping the global industrial chain [2]. * US Economic Outlook: The US economy is expected to continue on a soft landing path with a GDP growth rate of around 2% in 2025, despite Trump's policies of tax cuts and tariffs [4][15]. * European and Japanese Economic Outlook: Europe is expected to see a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in 2025, while Japan is expected to escape deflation with a GDP growth rate of around 2.9% [10][32]. * Emerging Market Outlook: Emerging markets like India and Vietnam are expected to grow at around 6% in the next few years, benefiting from the reshaping of the global industrial chain [2][35]. * Investment Opportunities: Opportunities are seen in US bonds, the US dollar, gold, and US stocks, with a cautious optimistic outlook for US stocks [38]. Other Important Content * Trump's Policy 2.0: Includes tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and reduction in government spending. Its long-term impact is expected to be positive, with tax cuts being the main driver [6][17]. * Global Political Spectrum: Moving to the right, with potential risks of populism, inflation, and fiscal unsustainability [25]. * Geopolitical Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula are expected to persist [26]. * Global Supply Chain: Reshaped after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Biden administration's focus on economic security, benefiting countries like Mexico and Thailand [26]. * AI-Driven Bull Market: Potential risks of a market correction as the AI bull market continues [28]. * Gold Market: Expected to perform well due to factors like US bond yields, dollar strength, geopolitical tensions, and "de-dollarization" [37]. * Oil Market: Expected to decline in 2024 due to oversupply and demand pressures [38].