US Daily_ A Retrospective on 10 Questions for 2024 (Mericle)

Our answer: Yes. 8. Will the Fed cut at least four times? 1. Will GDP grow faster than consensus and the FOMC expect? Our answer: Yes. Verdict: Correct. Our strong growth forecast was our core out-of-consensus view for 2024. At the end of 2023, the Bloomberg consensus forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth was just 0.9% and the FOMC's forecast was just 1.4%, likely because many forecasters still expected pain from the lagged impact of past rate hikes. We forecasted 2% growth because our analysis suggested that ...