工程机械行业专题--本轮更新周期中的销量与利润率的定量测算

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - Industry: Construction machinery, specifically excavators - Company: Not specified, but likely involves domestic excavator manufacturers Core Views and Arguments - Excavator Life Expectancy: The average life expectancy of excavators is estimated to be between 9 to 10 years, aligning with market consensus. - Update Cycle: The update cycle for excavators is predictable, with different years of real estate and infrastructure investment growth causing fluctuations in the update demand ratio. - Update Demand: The core assumption for update demand is based on the average lifespan of large, medium, and small excavators across different lifespan stages. - New Demand: New demand is difficult to calculate as it reflects the expansion of the existing inventory. The model considers the expansion of the existing inventory and the impact of infrastructure and real estate investment. - Excavator Sales Forecast: In the neutral and optimistic scenarios, domestic excavator sales in 2028 are expected to reach 210,000 to 230,000 units, representing a 135% to 158% increase from 2023. - Profit Margin Forecast: Factors affecting profit margin include capacity utilization rate, average unit price of engineering systems, price of core components, raw materials, and labor costs. - Capital Expenditure and Profit Growth: The relationship between capital expenditure and profit growth has become less correlated, indicating a shift towards stability in the industry. - Capacity Utilization and Profit Margin: Capacity utilization may continue to rise as capital expenditure slows down and profit growth is driven by the equipment update cycle. - Industry Profit Margin Forecast: The industry's profit margin is expected to increase from 2024 to 2028, with a potential increase of 4.6 percentage points. - Sensitivity Analysis: The sensitivity analysis considers different scenarios for sales growth, cost growth, and capacity utilization, providing a more robust forecast. Other Important Points - Historical Update Cycle: The Japanese construction machinery market experienced a significant upturn in the 2002-2017 period due to equipment updates, providing a strong belief in the existence of the update cycle. - Market for Used Excavators: The market for used excavators is growing, with an estimated average of 2 to 3 transactions per excavator over its lifetime. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate for domestic construction machinery is low, around 30-40%, indicating the industry's resilience. - Cost Factors: Factors affecting cost include raw material costs, component costs, capital expenditures, and labor costs. - Industry Concentration: The industry's concentration is increasing, leading to a shift from a competitive market to a market with pricing power by oligarchs or leaders. - Stock Recommendations: The report recommends investing in domestic excavator manufacturers such as XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, and Hydromech.