Novo Nordisk_ Weekly US diabetes & obesity market tracker

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Company: Novo Nordisk - Industry: European Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: In 3Q24, Novo Nordisk reported total prescriptions (TRx) of 7.60 million for Ozempic, 0.78 million for Rybelsus, and 2.69 million for Wegovy. For 4Q24, projections estimate TRx to be approximately 7.64 million for Ozempic, 0.75 million for Rybelsus, and 2.90 million for Wegovy, indicating growth rates of +0.5%, -3.7%, and +7.8% quarter-over-quarter respectively [3][10] - Sales Forecast: North America sales for Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy are projected at DKK 24.3 billion, DKK 3.1 billion, and DKK 14.2 billion for 4Q24, reflecting growth rates of +6.5%, +22.6%, and +10.7% quarter-over-quarter [10] - Weekly Prescription Trends: As of December 20, 2024, new prescriptions (NRx) for Wegovy's starting doses showed a decrease of -3.0% for 0.25mg and an increase of +4.5% for 0.5mg. Higher doses also saw increases of +3.0% to +2.5% [4] - Overall Market Growth: The total NRx and TRx for key diabetes therapies increased by +0.5% and +0.8% respectively, with Ozempic and Rybelsus contributing positively to this growth [8] Additional Important Insights - GLP-1 Drug Market: The sum of NRx/TRx for GLP-1 drugs used in diabetes increased by +1.1%/+1.0% last week, with Ozempic and Rybelsus showing significant growth [8] - Obesity Treatment Trends: Wegovy's NRx/TRx increased by +2.0%/+2.6% last week, indicating a positive trend in the obesity treatment market [8] - Valuation Metrics: The net present values (NPVs) for Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy are estimated at DKK 167, DKK 41, and DKK 122 per share respectively, based on peak sales estimates [12] - Investment Rating: Novo Nordisk is rated as "Overweight" with a positive industry outlook, and a price target of DKK 900.00, representing a potential upside of +44.6% from the current price of DKK 622.60 [8][70] Conclusion The conference call highlighted Novo Nordisk's strong performance in the diabetes and obesity markets, with positive growth trends in prescriptions and sales. The company's strategic positioning in the GLP-1 drug market and favorable valuation metrics suggest a robust outlook for investors.