Nio Inc. (NIO_9866.HK)_ Management meeting takeaways - Major model launches in 2H25, maintaining Onvo L60 momentum the key; Sell

Company and Industry Overview * Company: NIO Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) * Industry: Electric Vehicle (EV) and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry in China * Research Firm: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Key Points and Arguments * New Product Cycle: NIO is entering a new product cycle in 2025E-26E with the launch of two new Onvo models and facelift versions of existing NIO models. * Volume Targets: Management is confident of achieving 30k units of delivery in Dec 2024, with a target of 100% yoy volume growth in 2025E driven by Onvo and NIO facelift models. * Operational Efficiency: The company aims to improve operational efficiency and ensure smooth production and delivery of upcoming new models, learning from the lower-than-expected sales performance of NT2.0 products. * Market Competition: Management believes the Chinese passenger vehicle industry will remain fragmented, especially in the premium segment, due to diverse consumer needs and a large market size. * Battery Swapping Stations: NIO plans to expand its battery swapping network, aiming to have 3,000 stations by end-2024, up from 2,800 as of Dec 16, 2024. * Financial Performance: Management expects sequentially improving vehicle gross margin in 4Q24, with close to 15% for the Nio brand and approx. 5% for the Onvo brand. * Rating: Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating on NIO with a 12m DCF-based (WACC 11.8%, TGR 3.5%) target price of US$3.9/HK$30 on the ADR/H share. Additional Important Content * Onvo Brand: The Onvo brand will launch a 6/7-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L8 in 2H25E, followed by a 5-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L7. * Firefly Brand: The Firefly brand, focused on the small-size vehicle market, started presales of the firefly model at Rmb148.8k on Dec 21, 2024. * ADAS: NIO's ADAS team announced a series of organizational adjustment plans, with Mr. Shaoqing Ren leading the large model department to accelerate the delivery pace of the "end-to-end" model. * M&A Rank: NIO has a M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability (0%-15%) of being acquired. * Investment Thesis: Goldman Sachs expects lukewarm order momentum, slow production ramp-up, and intensifying price competition to be downside catalysts for NIO's stock price.