中信：2025年投资全景图

Industry and Company Analysis Key Points 1. Macroeconomic Outlook: - Fiscal Policy: Expected significant increase in government deficit rate to 4% in 2025, with additional special bonds and local government special bonds. General government expenditure growth expected to rise from -1.6% in 2024 to over 5% in 2025. - Investment Landscape: A-share market poised for annual-level rally, driven by stable core city housing prices and rising social financing growth. Key sectors include high-quality growth, domestic consumption, and M&A. - Global Market: Expectation of a combination of domestic demand recovery and trade friction risks in 2025. Suggest asset allocation order: stocks > commodities > bonds. - US Market: Potential for US inflation rebound, with non-US economies expected to maintain stable inflation. Suggest focus on technology, utilities, healthcare, and finance sectors. - Hong Kong Market: Expected to see a reversal in 2025, with focus on non-bank financials, technology, and consumer sectors. - Bond Market: Expected downward trend in interest rate中枢, with credit bonds benefiting from the new debt resolution cycle. Convertible bonds expected to see increased option value in a volatile market. 2. A-share Market: - Investment Opportunities: Focus on three key tracks: high-quality growth, domestic consumption, and M&A. - Market Dynamics: Expected to see a new round of profit growth in the second half of 2025, with non-financial ROE expected to stabilize and improve. - Investor Ecosystem: Expected to see increased inflows of personal and institutional investors, with ETFs as a key tool. 3. Sector Analysis: - Technology Industry: Focus on new quality productivity opportunities, with a focus on AI, AI applications, and data产业链. - Consumer Industry: Expected to see a recovery in demand, with a focus on consumer internet, low-valued high-return consumer goods, and necessary consumer goods. - Infrastructure and Modern Services Industry: Expected to see a reversal in困境, with a focus on policy support and demand recovery. - Manufacturing Industry: Focus on domestic demand-driven recovery and self-sufficiency, with a focus on new energy-related industries, general manufacturing, and cyclical industries. - Energy and Materials Industry: Focus on commodity supply-side logic and material growth opportunities. - Medical Health Industry: Expected to be a good opportunity for bottom positioning in 2025, with a focus on innovative drugs, medical devices, and biopharmaceuticals. - Financial Industry: Expected to benefit from stable economic growth and increased financial demand, with a focus on policy guidance and expected improvement in investment opportunities. 4. Investment Strategy: - Growth Stocks: Focus on self-sufficiency and new quality productivity, with a focus on AI terminals, intelligent vehicles, and commercial aerospace. - Domestic Consumption: Focus on policy implementation and configuration from essential consumption to discretionary consumption. - M&A: Focus on industrial integration and new quality productivity development, with a focus on cross-industry M&A and listed companies with control change or real assets outside the company. 5. Risk Factors: - Geopolitical Risks: Potential for increased geopolitical tensions and trade friction. - Global Liquidity: Potential for global liquidity tightening and rising interest rates. - Economic Recovery: Potential for slower economic recovery than expected. - Policy Implementation: Potential for delays or insufficient implementation of policies. - Market Volatility: Potential for increased market volatility and volatility in asset prices.