G10 Inflation Monitor_ Progress Resumes Outside of the UK (Peters)

Industry/Company Involved * Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - The document is a report from Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division, focusing on inflation trends across various economies. Core Points and Arguments 1. Core Inflation Trends: * Core goods inflation slowed in Japan and Canada, but increased in the US, the Euro area, and the UK. * Core services inflation slowed in most economies, with the largest decline in the Euro area and acceleration in Canada. * Traditional core inflation measures preferred by major central banks differ in terms of included categories and measurement approaches. * Goldman Sachs' trimmed core inflation measure systematically trims a weighted one-third of month-to-month changes across all core inflation categories and then takes the weighted average of the remaining two-thirds. * The trimmed core inflation rate stands at +3.7% in the UK, +2.9% in Canada, +2.5% in the US, and +2.4% in the Euro area. * Core goods inflation slowed in Canada and Japan but increased elsewhere. * Core services inflation generally declined in most economies. * Rent inflation declined in Canada and the US but increased in the UK. * Energy inflation increased in Japan and the UK, remained in negative territory elsewhere. * Food inflation increased in the UK and US but slowed elsewhere. * The breadth of inflationary pressures continues to moderate. * The share of the headline basket running above 4% on a six-month annualized basis declined across DMs. * The share of the basket with year-over-year inflation increasing ticked up outside of the US. * The distribution of three-month inflation rates across items continued to shift back towards pre-pandemic norms in most economies, but remains more dispersed in Canada. 2. Inflation Forecasts: * Goldman Sachs revised up its end-2024 forecasts for core inflation in Canada and the Euro area, and its end-2025 forecast for core inflation in the UK. * Goldman Sachs revised its end-2024 headline inflation forecasts by +0.1pp in the UK and -0.1pp in Canada. * Goldman Sachs expects further disinflation in most economies in 2025, with year-over-year core inflation slowing to +2.1% in Japan, +2.4% in the US, +2.0% in the Euro area, +2.8% in the UK, and +2.0% in Canada. * The GS harmonized core excludes a consistent set of items from CPI in all economies. Other Important Points * The document includes various charts and tables illustrating inflation trends and forecasts. * The document provides a detailed explanation of the methodology used to calculate trimmed core inflation. * The document includes disclosures regarding the authorship and distribution of the report.