陈李：2025年中国资产展望102

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - Real Estate industry - U.S. economy - Hong Kong market Core Views and Arguments 1. Inflation and Price Trends: - Global inflation is expected to decline and end by 2025, with prices continuously falling [doc id='1'][doc id='2'][doc id='3'][doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - The real estate sector is considered the most persistent and resilient in terms of price increases during inflationary cycles, but it is also the last to show price strength [doc id='1'][doc id='2'][doc id='3'][doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. 2. U.S. Policy and Inflation: - Policies implemented by the Trump administration, such as tax cuts for businesses, tariffs, and immigration policies, are not expected to significantly impact inflation in the short term [doc id='1'][doc id='2'][doc id='3'][doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - Tariff exemptions were granted to 42% of goods during Trump's first term, indicating that not all policies will be fully implemented [doc id='1'][doc id='2'][doc id='3'][doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. 3. Trade Friction and Tariffs: - The impact of tariffs on exports could range from 2.7% to 10% [doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - The purpose of tariffs may not be solely to increase prices but to reduce trade deficits, suggesting that alternative measures such as increased imports and currency appreciation could be effective [doc id='3'][doc id='4'][doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. 4. Chinese Economy and Real Estate: - The real estate market in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen is showing signs of recovery, with second-hand home sales reaching historical highs [doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - This recovery could potentially spread to other cities and contribute to overall economic stabilization [doc id='5'][doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. 5. Hong Kong Market Attractiveness: - The Hong Kong market is considered relatively safe due to its low valuation and potential for growth [doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - Hong Kong's market valuation is lower than major global markets, including the U.S., Japan, India, and the UK [doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - Hong Kong's market has seen a turnaround in corporate earnings and is attracting some global investment [doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. Other Important Points - The potential for trade friction between the U.S. and other countries, including China, could impact global markets [doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stabilize the economy, but the impact is not yet fully evident [doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20']. - The potential for a tactical appreciation of the Chinese yuan could benefit overseas Chinese assets [doc id='6'][doc id='7'][doc id='8'][doc id='9'][doc id='10'][doc id='11'][doc id='12'][doc id='13'][doc id='14'][doc id='15'][doc id='16'][doc id='17'][doc id='18'][doc id='19'][doc id='20'].