China Property_ Major Developers' December Sales Remained Decent

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property industry, specifically the performance of major developers in December 2024 and expectations for early 2025 [2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Sales Performance in December 2024: - Major developers' contracted sales were down 10% year-on-year (y-y) but up 11% month-on-month (m-m) in December [2][3]. - The top 50 developers saw a 2% y-y increase in sales, while the top 100 developers remained flat at 0% y-y [3]. 2. Yearly Sales Declines: - Full-year sales declines for the top 50 and top 100 developers were -26% and -27% y-y, respectively [3]. 3. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Performance: - SOEs outperformed with positive y-y growth, with notable performances from COLI (+76%), Jinmao (+66%), CR Land (+52%), and Yuexiu (+48%) [4]. - In contrast, private developers like Agile, Sunac, CIFI, and Country Garden experienced declines exceeding 50% y-y [4]. 4. Factors for SOE Outperformance: - The outperformance of SOEs is attributed to better brand recognition, more new saleable resources in top-tier cities, and lower risks of stalled construction [4]. 5. Sales Expectations for 1Q25: - Sales are expected to remain decent in 1Q25, with potential for positive y-y growth in February due to a low base and the earlier Chinese New Year [5]. - However, visibility on stabilizing housing sales in 2025 is low, particularly for primary sales due to significantly reduced land sales [5]. 6. Policy Response: - The housing policy response is expected to remain reactive, with any incremental stimulus likely muted until March [5]. - Faster and more coordinated policy actions are deemed necessary to support homebuyer confidence and sustain recovery [5]. Additional Important Insights - The divergence in sales performance highlights the challenges faced by private developers compared to their state-owned counterparts, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. - The data suggests a cautious outlook for the property market, emphasizing the need for supportive policies to enhance buyer confidence and stabilize sales [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the China Property market, particularly focusing on the performance of major developers and the implications of government policies.