China Property_ Secondary Home Prices Weakened In December

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically the secondary home prices and market dynamics in major cities during December 2024. Key Points and Arguments Secondary Home Prices - December secondary home prices in major cities experienced a month-on-month (m-m) decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year (y-y) decline of 9.8%. This follows a two-month upward trend, indicating diminishing policy impact [2][5]. - 80% of the tracked cities reported a m-m decrease in transaction prices, compared to 38% in November and 42% in October [2]. Listings and Market Activity - New secondary listings increased by 3% m-m and 30% y-y in December, with 55% of cities showing m-m increases [3]. - Total listings rose by 0.6% m-m on average, with 64% of cities experiencing an increase in listings [3]. Visitations and Consumer Sentiment - Visits to agent shops decreased by 7% m-m in December but were still up 35% y-y, with 89% of cities recording y-y increases [4]. - The decline in visitations, alongside lower listing and transaction prices, suggests weakening resident sentiment, which may exert downward pressure on home sales in 1Q25 [5]. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The sustainability of the home sales recovery is contingent on the effective implementation of announced policies, such as inventory buyback and urban village redevelopment, supported by adequate funding from the central government [5]. - The call maintained an In-Line industry view, suggesting that a persistent sales pickup is crucial for sector outperformance [6]. Stock Recommendations - Suggested stocks for selective accumulation include: - CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) as dual beneficiaries of housing and consumption. - Defensive state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers like Greentown (3900.HK), COLI (0688.HK), and Yuexiu (0123.HK), which may outperform due to potentially stronger sales [6]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions, including increased listings and reduced visitations, may lead to a challenging environment for home sales in the upcoming quarter [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a concerted policy response to bolster consumer confidence and stabilize the market [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China Property market, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.