US Economics_ Employment Report Preview_ Solid, but slowing

Industry and Company Overview * Industry: US Economy, North America * Company: Not specified, focus on broader economic analysis Key Points and Arguments 1. Employment Report Preview: The forecast for December payrolls is 150k, following November's 227k rise. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.3% and average hourly earnings (AHE) to rise 0.3% [2]. 2. Labor Market Trends: The labor market is on solid footing but experiencing slower employment growth and cooling overall conditions in 2024. However, it is not softening as rapidly as it appeared last summer [7]. 3. Retail Payrolls: A rebound in retail payrolls is crucial for the December forecast. After a decline in November, retail employment is expected to rise by 10k, similar to the pattern seen in 2023 [9]. 4. Labor Supply Uncertainty: Slower immigration, particularly since July and August, is likely impacting payrolls and the unemployment rate. The exact timing and impact are difficult to estimate [8]. 5. Industry Breakdown: The forecasted payroll changes by industry show a mix of growth and decline across various sectors. Goods-producing industries are expected to see a decline, while service-producing industries are expected to see growth [22]. 6. Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and remain stable at 4.0% on a 12-month basis, indicating continued growth in aggregate labor market income outpacing inflation [23]. 7. Unemployment Rate: Expected to increase slightly to 4.3% in December, continuing its gradual uptrend. The labor force participation rate is expected to remain stable [24]. Other Important Content * Exhibits: The document includes several exhibits providing detailed data and analysis on various aspects of the labor market, including payroll changes, retail payrolls, immigration, and unemployment rate trends [3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 28, 29]. * Disclosures: The document includes a disclosure section outlining important information about the research, including conflicts of interest, valuation methodology, and risks associated with the recommendations [33-42].