2024年工业母机产业链论坛总结

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference focused on the changes in the basic industry for 2024, highlighting the continuous policy support and the rapid progress in domestic core component localization [1][4] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, although the pace is not very pronounced, with a shift towards diversification in export markets for 2024 [2][10] Key Points on Policies - The introduction of tax subsidies is a significant policy that is expected to enhance economic performance for companies, with examples showing potential tax reductions of around 9 million for companies with revenues of 600 million [3] - There is a trend towards providing subsidies for purchasing domestic machine tools, indicating a strong governmental push for local manufacturing [4] Domestic Manufacturing Trends - The localization of core components in machine tools is accelerating, with companies increasingly producing key parts such as spindles and guide rails in-house [7] - The self-manufacturing ratio for critical components is rising, with companies like Beijing Jinniao and Kede developing their own CNC systems [8] Export Market Dynamics - The export growth rate is significantly higher than domestic sales, with a notable reliance on the Russian-speaking market, which is expected to decline in 2024 due to sanctions [9][10] - Companies are experiencing a substantial drop in revenue from the Russian market, with some reporting declines of over 50% [11] High-End Market Growth - Despite overall market challenges, high-end machine tool sales are increasing, with companies like Kede and Niuwei showing growth in their shipments [13] - The demand for high-end components remains strong, indicating a potential shift in market focus towards higher quality products [12] Future Outlook - The industrial 5G sector is being closely monitored, with its performance linked to manufacturing orders and policy support [15] - The machine tool sector is currently undervalued, positioned as the second lowest in terms of absolute valuation within the automation sector [16] - A potential recovery in orders is anticipated in early 2024, with expectations for a boost from the 3C industry in 2025 [17] Conclusion - The conference provided insights into the current state and future expectations of the machine tool industry, emphasizing the importance of policy support and the shift towards domestic production and high-end manufacturing [18]