中信：海外政策专题（27）—海外政策2025年度展望：中美关系篇5

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-China relations and the implications of Trump's return to presidency in 2025. Core Points and Arguments 1. Economic and Industrial Pressure: In 2025, U.S. pressure on China is expected to manifest more in economic and industrial terms rather than strategic and security aspects, with a focus on tariffs and structural reforms [3][15][29] 2. Trump's Return: Trump's return to presidency on January 20, 2025, will significantly influence U.S. foreign policy, with a dual focus on domestic and foreign issues, including tariffs, immigration, and energy policies [3][15][31] 3. Tariff Strategy: Trump's tariffs may target industries with high dependency on China and advanced technology, but the long-term trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is unlikely to change [3][6][15] 4. Technological Restrictions: The U.S. is expected to impose stricter technology restrictions on China, focusing on investment, export controls, and academic exchanges, which will continue the tech rivalry between the two nations [6][29] 5. Energy Policy: Trump is likely to maintain a focus on traditional energy sources while enhancing the requirements for self-sufficiency in energy production, without completely abolishing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [6][29] 6. Domestic Policy Response: In response to Trump's policies, China is expected to adopt a flexible approach in its domestic policies, focusing on fiscal support, internal demand, technology, and employment [6][29] 7. Economic Growth Forecast: China's economy is projected to grow around 5% in 2025, with a "U" shaped recovery anticipated due to external pressures and internal policy adjustments [6][29] 8. Risk Factors: Potential risks include unexpected deterioration of the U.S. economy, escalation of U.S.-China tensions, worsening global geopolitical situations, and increased trade tariff risks [6][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Bipartisan Trends: The "Trumpification" of U.S. policy is becoming a trend, with both parties increasingly adopting populist and protectionist stances, which will shape future U.S. foreign policy [3][15][31] 2. Public Interest in Foreign Policy: There is a growing public interest in foreign policy issues among U.S. voters, particularly in light of recent global conflicts, indicating a shift in priorities [21][22] 3. Supply Chain Dynamics: The ongoing U.S.-China tech rivalry may lead to the establishment of separate supply chain systems, with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan making strategic choices based on these developments [6][29] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the anticipated economic and geopolitical dynamics as the U.S. approaches Trump's new term in office.