中信：债市启明系列—低利率背景下美日险资配置策略对我国的启示7

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the insurance asset management strategies in the context of low interest rates, particularly drawing insights from the United States and Japan, and their implications for China's insurance sector [1][8][66]. Core Insights and Arguments Current State of China's Insurance Asset Management - As of 2024, the scale of insurance fund utilization has seen a rapid increase, with a year-on-year growth of 15.07%, amounting to an increase of 3.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [3][9]. - The total amount of insurance funds utilized reached 32.15 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [3][9]. - Premium income is expected to exceed 5.6 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by a renewed sales window for insurance products following a reduction in insurance rates [11][3]. U.S. Insurance Asset Management Strategies - U.S. life insurance investment yields have remained above 4%, with some periods exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield by a significant margin [3][27]. - The investment strategy is characterized by differentiated asset allocation based on account types: general accounts are conservative, while separate accounts are more aggressive [32][33]. - The proportion of equity investments in independent accounts has stabilized around 30%, reflecting a shift from a predominantly fixed-income investment style [33][38]. Japanese Insurance Sector Challenges and Strategies - The Japanese insurance sector faced a crisis in the late 1990s due to interest rate declines and cash flow issues, leading to multiple bankruptcies [48][49]. - Despite low absolute yields, the comprehensive investment yield of Japanese life insurance companies has maintained above 2.0%, primarily due to overseas assets [54][56]. - The asset allocation strategy is conservative, with a high proportion of government bonds and a growing share of overseas bonds [56][54]. Lessons for China's Insurance Sector - Recommendations include adjusting guaranteed rates to lower liability costs and innovating product categories to enhance investment attributes [66]. - Fixed income investments will remain the primary asset class, with an expected acceleration in the "buy high" strategy for bonds [67]. - Increasing the proportion of equity investments through FVOCI assets can enhance overall returns, particularly in a low-yield environment [68]. Important but Overlooked Aspects - The report highlights the potential risks, including slower-than-expected economic recovery and severe capital outflows from non-bank liabilities [69]. - The need for insurance companies to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments is emphasized, particularly in the context of the new IFRS9 accounting standards [68][66]. - The historical context of Japan's insurance crisis serves as a cautionary tale for China's insurance sector, underscoring the importance of maintaining a balanced and prudent investment strategy [48][54]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future directions of the insurance asset management industry in the context of low interest rates.