煤炭行业-动力煤价格下跌，下游库存减少

Key Points Industry Overview 1. Domestic and International Coal Price Trends: Domestic coal prices have been continuously declining since December, with the decline starting in January. International coal prices began to decline in January. As of December 20th, the Qinhuai Island coal price in Shanxi was 771 yuan per ton, down 7.44% from the previous month. International coal prices in Australia, Europe, and South Africa also showed a decline, with the Newcastle Port coal price in Australia down 7.14% and South African coal price down 4.16% [doc id='1']. 2. Coal Production and Imports: The coal production in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.06% month-on-month to 1950.5 million tons. The monthly import volume of coal reached 16.8874 million tons, up 27.24.79% year-on-year [doc id='2']. 3. Coal Inventory: The inventory of the three major ports decreased by 5.42% month-on-month to 1.3819 million tons, indicating a light inventory level [doc id='2']. The inventory of the six major power generation groups also showed a significant decrease, down 3.34% month-on-month [doc id='10']. 4. Coal Demand: The daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased by 6.31% month-on-month, indicating growing downstream demand for thermal power generation [doc id='3']. 5. Coal Transportation Costs: The transportation costs from Qinhuai Island to other destinations, such as Ningbo and Australia, showed a significant decline [doc id='3']. 6. Risk Factors: The industry faces risks such as insufficient effective demand and unexpected price declines [doc id='4']. Historical Price Trends 1. Historical Coal Prices: The coal price reached its highest level in October 2022, with prices above 1600 yuan for nearly a week [doc id='5']. 2. Price Decline: The coal price began to decline in March 2024, with prices falling below 900 yuan in March 2024 due to several rounds of price cuts by the government [doc id='6']. Production and Imports 1. Coal Production: The monthly coal production in November 2024 increased by 3.93% year-on-year to 161.81 million tons [doc id='7']. 2. Coal Imports: The imports of coal and anthracite coal showed significant growth, with the import volume of coal and anthracite coal reaching 16.8874 million tons in November 2024 [doc id='8']. Inventory and Demand 1. Coal Inventory: The inventory of the three major ports decreased by 5.42% month-on-month, and the inventory of the six major power generation groups decreased by 3.34% month-on-month [doc id='10']. 2. Coal Demand: The daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased by 6.31% month-on-month, indicating growing downstream demand for thermal power generation [doc id='3']. Electricity Generation 1. Electricity Generation: The total electricity generation and thermal power generation increased by 0.00% month-on-month and 0.00% year-on-year, respectively. The thermal power generation accounted for 69.04% of the total electricity generation [doc id='11']. Future Outlook 1. Coal Price: The coal price is expected to rise above 800 yuan in January and February 2025 due to increased demand [doc id='12']. 2. Coal Industry: The coal industry is expected to remain attractive for investment despite the recent decline in coal prices [doc id='13'].