高端装备跨年掘金08-船舶2025年展望

Key Points Industry Overview 1. Cruise Ship Industry Growth: The average daily revenue for cruise ships as of December 2014 was $26,300, 8.9% higher than the 10-year average. However, it still lags behind the peak of $60,000 to $80,000 per day from 2004-2008, indicating significant upward potential. [1] 2. Oil Trade Growth: The oil trade is expected to grow at a moderate pace of 1.9% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, driven by increased oil production in the Atlantic region and new refineries in India and China. [1] 3. Container Ship Industry: The container ship industry is expected to see a 3.2% growth in capacity in 2026, with trade growth matching this pace, avoiding significant overcapacity. [2] 4. New Energy Ship Demand: The demand for new energy ships, particularly for LNG carriers, is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 12% increase in demand by 2026. [3] 5. Shipyard Orderbook: The orderbook-to-capacity ratio for shipyards is relatively low, indicating potential for increased orders in the future. [5] 6. Ship Aging: The aging of the fleet is a significant concern, with many ships having an average age of over 15 years. This necessitates replacement and new orders. [2] 7. China's Market Share: China's market share in shipbuilding is increasing, with 55% of completed orders, 75% of new orders, and 61% of orderbook volume in 2024. [7] Shipbuilding Industry 1. Industry Performance in 2024: The shipbuilding industry experienced a strong performance in 2024, with fresh orders and prices rising significantly. The A-share shipbuilding industry outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. [9] 2. New Ship Prices and Orders: The global new ship order volume increased by 34% in 2024, with the order value growing by 55%. The new ship price index increased by 6% throughout the year. [13] 3. Ship Type Performance: The best-performing ship types in 2024 were cruise ships, container ships, and LNG carriers, with container ships seeing a 158% increase in orders. [13] 4. Ships' Aging and New Energy: The aging of the fleet is a significant concern, with a high proportion of ships over 20 years old. There is a growing demand for new energy ship types, particularly for LNG carriers. [19] 5. Shipyard Consolidation: The number of active shipyards is decreasing, with market concentration increasing. This is driven by the increasing complexity of ship types and the lack of skilled labor in Japan and South Korea. [20] Investment Outlook 1. Industry Outlook for 2025 and 2026: Clarkson expects the global fleet to grow by 2.5% in 2025 and slightly lower in 2026. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is low, indicating potential for increased orders. [18] 2. Demand and Supply Gap: The demand and supply gap is expected to persist from 2025 to 2030, with a projected 4.97 million deadweight tonnage gap in 2025. [24] 3. Investment Opportunities: The report remains bullish on the shipbuilding industry, with a focus on companies like China State Shipbuilding Corporation, China重工, and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding. [26]