如何看待人民币贬值压力

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and its exchange rates against other currencies, particularly the US Dollar (USD), Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), and Euro (EUR). Core Points and Arguments 1. RMB Exchange Rate Control: The RMB exchange rate was tightly controlled below 7.30 until January 3, 2025, when it broke this level, indicating a potential depreciation cycle for the RMB [1][5][21]. 2. Market Reactions: The RMB has experienced a significant depreciation, with a drop to 7.33, marking a critical resistance level. This depreciation is attributed to both market forces and the performance of RMB-denominated financial assets [1][6][22]. 3. Comparison with Other Currencies: The RMB's depreciation is not solely due to a strong USD. The performance of the Euro against the RMB has also been weak, indicating that the RMB's issues may stem from domestic financial conditions rather than external pressures [9][10][22]. 4. Impact of US Political Changes: The election of Trump and subsequent policy changes are expected to influence the USD's strength and, consequently, the RMB's exchange rate. The market is closely watching how these policies will affect the RMB [3][21][23]. 5. Potential Paths for RMB: Three potential scenarios for the RMB's future exchange rate movements were discussed: - Scenario 1: The central bank continues to defend the 7.19 level, maintaining a controlled depreciation range for the RMB [17][22]. - Scenario 2: The central bank allows the RMB to follow a pricing model, potentially leading to a gradual increase in the exchange rate [16][20]. - Scenario 3: The central bank maintains a defensive stance, keeping the RMB within a specific range while managing external pressures from the USD [18][23]. 6. Investor Sentiment: Despite recent depreciation, there is still confidence in RMB assets, as the overall depreciation since the beginning of the year has been limited to 0.25% [11][22]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance: The stock market has been in a low state, similar to conditions before September 2024, leading to some capital outflow but not a systemic sell-off of RMB assets [8][21]. 2. Central Bank's Role: The central bank's actions and policies are crucial in determining the future trajectory of the RMB, with a focus on how they will respond to both domestic economic conditions and international pressures [20][23]. 3. Short-term Outlook: The period around January 20, 2025, is highlighted as a critical time for potential shifts in the RMB's exchange rate due to expected policy announcements and market reactions [23][24].