大摩：AI供应链 – GB300新技术带来的投资机会

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the AI Supply Chain and the upcoming GB300 server hardware specifications, indicating significant developments in the Global Technology sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. GB300 Server Rack Design Timeline: - The design for the GB300 server rack is expected to be finalized by early 2Q25, with integrated shipments anticipated to begin in 4Q25 [2]. 2. Adoption of GPU Sockets: - The GB300 is likely to adopt GPU sockets to accommodate Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell GPUs (B300), aimed at improving yield rates and repairability. Current yield rates for Wistron's compute boards are at 80%, compared to 90%+ for UBB [2][3]. 3. Cold Plate Module Design: - A new QD design for cold plate modules is anticipated, allowing for separate cooling solutions for each GPU/CPU, which could enhance efficiency and performance [3]. 4. Power Supply Units (PSU): - The GB300 server rack is designed to support power supply units of up to 10kW or 12kW, with a potential standalone power rack being considered due to increased power demands [4]. 5. Value Addition for ODMs: - Nvidia's reduced involvement in mechanical component design for GB300 servers may allow hyperscalers and ODMs to have more flexibility in design and supplier selection, potentially increasing ODM margins and customization opportunities [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. Capacity Expansion by Ibiden: - Ibiden is planning a faster capacity expansion due to strong demand for AI substrates, with 25% of its new plant expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [12]. 2. NYPCB's Supplier Role: - NYPCB is currently a supplier for AWS and Broadcom, with potential future involvement in supplying for AWS's Trainium3 project [12]. 3. Hon Hai's GB200 Server Rack Shipment: - Hon Hai's GB200 server rack shipments were included in December revenue, with volume ramp-up expected in late January [12]. 4. AI Revenue Mix for Key Companies: - Companies like Wistron and FII are projected to see significant increases in their AI revenue mix, with Wistron's AI revenue expected to rise from 8% in 2024 to 24% in 2025 [13]. 5. Market Dynamics: - The competitive landscape includes various players with differing market caps and growth projections, indicating a dynamic environment for AI hardware suppliers [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the AI supply chain and the strategic shifts among key players in the technology sector.