US Lodging, Cruise & Online Travel 2025 Outlook. Is there any remaining Wanderlust in Travel stocks_

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Hotels & Leisure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Lodging, Cruise, and Online Travel sectors, providing an outlook for 2025 and analyzing the performance of travel stocks in 2024, which averaged a +24% return, outperforming the S&P 500 by 1% [1][11][40]. - The travel sector saw a significant rebound in Q4 2024, outperforming the S&P by 13.5% [1]. Key Insights and Projections for 2025 - Demand vs. Supply: 2025 is expected to be a solid year for travel, with demand outpacing supply. The forecast for US RevPAR growth is 3.1%, significantly higher than the 0.9% in 2019. Europe is projected to slow to 2.8% from ~6% in 2024 [2][75]. - Cruise Sector: The cruise segment is highlighted as particularly attractive, with expected yield growth of >4% and RCL's projected 27% EPS growth, the best among quality names [1][3]. - High-End Consumer Focus: Companies like Hyatt and Marriott are well-positioned to benefit from targeting high-end consumers, with Hyatt being the top pick due to its strong demand for all-inclusive resorts and refurbished hotels [1][31][32]. Stock Performance and Recommendations - Top Performers: The best-performing stocks in 2024 included RCL (+80%), HLT and BKNG (both around +40%), while Marriott saw a +15% increase in H2 [1][11]. - Investment Recommendations: - Hyatt: Expected to lead in RevPAR growth with 13% EBITDA growth in 2025 [31]. - Marriott: Anticipated 19% EPS growth, preferred over Hilton and Booking due to better margins and cost-saving initiatives [32]. - RCL: Projected to maintain momentum with 12% EBITDA growth and a 26% upside potential [33]. - Airbnb: Despite a tough 2024, it is seen as a potential surprise in 2025 as consensus estimates bottom out [34]. - Tripadvisor: Valued at <5x EBITDA, expected to benefit from management's freedom to buy back stock [35]. Market Dynamics and Risks - Regulatory Environment: Potential travel restrictions and new taxes in Europe may impact demand, but the overall effect is not expected to be material [57][58]. - Consolidation Trends: The report anticipates more consolidation in the industry, with Hyatt actively pursuing acquisitions [59]. - China's Recovery: The APAC region, particularly China, is expected to lead in hotel growth as it continues to recover from the pandemic [60]. Conclusion - The travel sector is poised for a strong performance in 2025, driven by robust demand, particularly in the cruise and high-end lodging segments. Key players like Hyatt, Marriott, and RCL are recommended for investment, while potential risks from regulatory changes and market dynamics should be monitored closely.