Leisure, Gaming & Lodging_Top Ten Predictions in Leisure for 2025

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Leisure, Gaming & Lodging industry, providing insights and predictions for 2025 based on the performance of various sectors in 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights and Predictions Lodging - Marriott (MAR) is expected to guide net unit growth for 2024 at 4.2%, which is at the low end of its long-term guidance of 4-5% CAGR. In contrast, Hilton (HLT) is projected to achieve a growth rate of 7-7.5% in 2024, exceeding its 5% growth in 2023 [5][6]. - Overall U.S. lodging supply is anticipated to remain muted in 2024 [5]. Cruise Lines - Carnival Corporation (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are expected to order new ships in 2024 for delivery in 2027 or later, marking a significant return to ordering since the pandemic. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is not expected to order new ships due to existing commitments [7]. Gaming - DraftKings (DKNG) is projected to grow its structural hold by at least 80 basis points year-over-year in 2024, with EBITDA guidance set between $350 million and$450 million. However, there are concerns about potential non-core acquisitions [8]. - The Macau gaming market is expected to see double-digit growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2024, with Las Vegas Sands (LVS) recovering market share as the grind mass continues to recover [9][10]. - The Las Vegas Strip is experiencing a decline in same-store net gaming revenue, with a 2% year-over-year decrease from March to October 2024 [12]. Powersports - U.S. retail sales for off-road vehicles are expected to decline in 2024, although BRP may gain market share. Harley-Davidson (HOG) is also expected to see a decline in retail sales due to softer demand [13][14][15]. Toys - U.S. toy retail sales are projected to decline by 8% in 2023, driven by decreasing average selling prices [16]. Other Leisure - Peloton is expected to finish the fiscal year with connected fitness subscribers in the range of 2.9-3.1 million, indicating muted conversion from its new app launch [17]. Additional Predictions for 2025 - Cruise Lines: CCL's new island destination, Celebration Key, is expected to drive demand starting in July 2025 [18]. - Hotels: HLT is expected to achieve higher net unit growth than MAR, with guidance of 6-7% for 2025, while MAR may struggle to meet its 4% growth target [20][21]. - Powersports: Harley may reconsider its electric vehicle strategy due to lower demand for its traditional motorcycle business [22]. - Online Sports Betting: Genius Sports (GENI) is expected to see 20%+ growth in sports rights expenses in 2025, driven by new contracts [24]. - Gaming: Las Vegas revenues may remain flat or decline in 2025, with regional markets facing growth challenges [26]. Risks and Considerations - The report highlights various risks, including macroeconomic factors affecting lodging demand, potential declines in visitation to Las Vegas, and competitive pressures in the cruise industry [30][31][32][33]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and predictions for the Leisure, Gaming & Lodging industry as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends and potential risks for investors.