China Coal_ Weekly Coal Update_ Stagnant Price Moves; Elevated Coal Output

Summary of the Coal Industry Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Coal Industry and provides insights into the thermal and coking coal markets in the Asia Pacific region [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Price Movements - Thermal Coal Prices: - QHD 5500 thermal coal price decreased by 0.3% week-over-week (WoW) to Rmb 707/ton as of January 3, 2025 [2][8]. - CCI 5500 increased by 0.7% WoW to Rmb 770/ton [2][8]. - BSPI remained flat at Rmb 703/ton [2][8]. - Seaborne thermal coal price (NEWC) fell by 3.1% WoW to US$ 124/ton [2][8]. Inventory Levels - Coal Inventory: - QHD port inventory decreased by 1.8% WoW to 6.45 million tons (mt) [3][8]. - Bohai Rim ports' inventory dropped by 5.2% WoW to 25.1 mt [3][8]. - Major Independent Power Producers (IPPs) coal inventory increased to 15.8 days, up from 15.6 days the previous week [3][8]. Production Insights - November Coal Production: - Set a new record at 428 million tons (mnt), representing a 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 3.9% month-over-month (MoM) increase [4][8]. - Power generation demand was mild, increasing by only 2.5% YoY to 750 billion kWh in November [4][8]. Coking Coal Prices - Coking Coal Prices: - Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price decreased by 2.9% WoW to Rmb 680/ton, while the Free on Rail (FOR) price remained flat at Rmb 1,410/ton [3][8]. - Queensland (QLD) coking coal price increased by 0.5% WoW to US$ 206/ton [3][8]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the coal industry, emphasizing the central government's commitment to treating coal as a strategic reserve, which may allow for further production increases in the future [4][7]. Additional Important Information - The report includes various data points and charts illustrating coal prices, inventory levels, and production trends, which provide a comprehensive view of the current state of the coal market in China [5][6][8]. - The report also highlights the potential impact of weather conditions on coal demand and production, particularly during the heating season [1][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the coal industry update, focusing on price movements, inventory levels, production records, and market outlook.