Global Energy Storage_ Outlook 2025. New markets to drive battery growth

Summary of Global Energy Storage Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Energy Storage industry, particularly the battery market and electric vehicle (EV) sales dynamics in 2024 and projections for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Battery Demand and Market Dynamics - Total battery demand is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2025, driven by robust growth in China's EV sales and recovery in European EV demand due to stricter CO2 emissions standards [2][10] - In 2024, battery demand growth was also 30%, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in China and global energy storage systems (ESS), despite a slowdown in the US and Europe [2][10] - The xEV sales in China are expected to grow by 20% in 2025, with total global xEV sales reaching 20 million units [32][37] Regional Performance - China achieved an EV penetration rate of 50% in 2024, significantly outperforming the US and Europe, where penetration rates were 10% and 20%, respectively [19][17] - The US market is anticipated to grow by 10% y-o-y in 2025, although challenges remain due to potential policy changes and infrastructure issues [36][10] - European EV sales are expected to rebound with a 30% growth in 2025, driven by new emissions regulations [35][10] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes a 60% collapse in lithium prices and a 30% decline in battery prices, which negatively impacted revenue and earnings for battery manufacturers, particularly in Korea [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at $12,000 per ton in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [3][10] Capacity and Utilization - Total battery capacity is projected to grow by 45% y-o-y to 4,431 GWh in 2025, with local capacity expected to meet demand across major economies [4][10] - Utilization rates for battery plants, particularly in China, are currently low (30-40%), but improvements are anticipated as companies focus on efficiency [4][10] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - CATL remains the market leader with a 35% share, followed by BYD at 18% and LGES at 13% [5][10] - The report highlights CATL and Samsung SDI as top picks for investment, citing their strong growth potential and favorable valuations [6][10] Investment Implications - Despite challenges in the US and European markets, the overall outlook for battery demand remains positive, with expectations of revenue and earnings growth in 2025 [10][6] - The report recommends Tianqi Lithium and CATL as top investment opportunities, emphasizing their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][10] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the destocking cycle in the Chinese battery value chain has largely ended, but high inventory levels in Korean and Western companies may pose short-term challenges [3][10] - The performance of battery cell makers has been better than that of battery components and lithium companies, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [21][10] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global energy storage market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and investment opportunities for 2025.