半夏宏观对冲2024年四季报

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - Industry: Chinese economy, equities, commodities, fixed income - Company: Shanghai Hanxia Investment Core Views and Arguments - Economic Recovery: The Chinese economy is likely entering a new upswing cycle, supported by policy efforts and economic cycles. Economic indicators have been recovering for three months, validating the earlier prediction. - Market Sentiment: Most market participants remain skeptical about the sustainability of economic recovery, leading to downward pressure on commodity and stock markets. - Investment Performance: Hanxia Macro hedge fund achieved a slight positive return in the fourth quarter, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices. - Policy Stimulus: China's policy stimulus extends beyond central and local government deficits, with continued efforts in other areas such as city construction, special bonds, policy banks, and public sector salaries. - Real Estate: Real estate prices are expected to stabilize and recover, driving economic growth. - US Policy: The appointment of Wally Adeyemo as US Treasury Secretary may lead to policies that encourage China to stimulate domestic demand and appreciate the yuan, benefiting Chinese assets. - Valuation: Market valuations are at extreme levels, with significant potential for reversal. - Investment Strategy: Emphasize defensiveness and safety in the short term, with a focus on long-term growth potential. Other Important Points - Commodities: Short-term defense, medium-term offense. Maintain a balanced position between long and short positions, with a focus on defense. - Equities: Focus on high-dividend, low PB, and cyclical stocks, particularly in the financial, construction, and real estate sectors. - Banks: Large banks, building materials, and construction companies with strong risk-return characteristics are key contributors to the portfolio. - Valuation: The portfolio consists of companies with an average PB of less than 0.6 and an average PE of less than 6, offering significant upside potential. References - [4], [5], [6], [7], [10], [11], [12], [13], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24], [25], [26], [27]