2024年中国船用燃料油市场回顾

Key Points Industry Overview 1. Fuel Oil Market Dynamics: The fuel oil market experienced a shift in dynamics, with high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) prices rising due to supply tightness and strong demand, while middle distillate fuel oil (MGO) and low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) prices remained weak due to ample supply and moderate demand. [1] 2. Export Quotas and Production: In 2024, the export quota for LSFO was reduced by 7.14% compared to 2023, totaling 13 million tons. The production of LSFO in 2024 was 13 million tons, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous year. [2] 3. Production by Major Companies: Sinopec's production accounted for 47.4% of the total, with a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous year. PetroChina's production accounted for 43.1% of the total, with an increase of 0.7%. [3] 4. Import and Consumption: The import of LSFO in the first half of 2024 was slightly higher than the previous year, but overall remained low. The consumption of LSFO in 2024 was approximately 19.8 million tons. [6] 5. Market Share Competition: The market share competition between national and local fuel oil companies intensified in 2024, with national companies holding a 70% market share and local companies holding a 30%. [9] Market Trends 1. Domestic Market: The domestic fuel oil market remained stable in 2024, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The consumption of fuel oil in the domestic market decreased by 7.46% compared to the previous year. [10] 2. Bunker Market: The bunker market in 2024 was characterized by a stable supply and demand, with the import of LSFO reaching 6 million tons, a 44.93% increase from the previous year. [7] 3. Clean Energy Alternatives: The development of clean energy alternatives, such as LNG, methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia, is gaining momentum. LNG is expected to become a major alternative fuel for shipping due to its low sulfur content and carbon emissions. [21] Future Outlook 1. Oil Market: The global oil market is expected to face challenges in 2025, with the WTI and Brent crude oil prices expected to range between $62 to$82 and $65 to$85 per barrel, respectively. [15] 2. Domestic Market: The domestic fuel oil market is expected to remain stable in 2025, with prices likely to remain within a narrow range. The supply of fuel oil is expected to decrease slightly, while demand is expected to remain moderate. [16] 3. Bunker Market: The bunker market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil prices, with the price difference between high sulfur and low sulfur fuel oil likely to expand. The supply of LSFO is expected to remain stable, while demand is expected to remain moderate. [18] 4. Clean Energy Alternatives: The development of clean energy alternatives is expected to accelerate in the long term, with hydrogen and ammonia fuels potentially becoming the ultimate fuel sources. [26]