AI产业链内部面临切换

Summary of Conference Call on AI Industry Industry Overview - The core focus of the current market is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is undergoing a transition phase within its internal segments [2][4] - The AI sector is divided into three main sub-sectors: Nvidia supply chain, domestic computing power chain, and AI application chain, each at different stages of market performance [3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The transition within the AI sector is marked by a shift from the Nvidia supply chain to the domestic computing power chain and then to the AI application chain [4] - Historical data suggests that a complete cycle for a sector lasts approximately 7-9 quarters, divided into three phases: expectation-driven, fundamental-driven, and catch-up phases [4][5] - The Nvidia supply chain has entered the third phase, the domestic computing power chain is in the latter part of a bull market, and the AI application chain is in the early stages of a major uptrend [4][6] - Market structure transitions typically occur during market corrections, with historical examples showing different leading sectors each year [4][8] - It is anticipated that the market will experience adjustments in the next 1-2 weeks, facilitating the transition of main lines within the AI sector, with increased focus on the domestic computing power chain and AI application chain [4][8] Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should differentiate based on the development stage of each sub-sector, focusing on leading companies' performance and the elasticity of second and third-tier companies [4][7] - The Nvidia supply chain is currently driven by new technologies such as high-speed copper cables and liquid cooling, while the domestic computing power chain's future opportunities depend on leading companies' performance after a potential correction [7] - The AI application chain is in the early stages of a major uptrend, with hardware (consumer electronics, autonomous robots) and software (media and software) sectors expected to advance after adjustments [7] Additional Important Points - The three phases of a sector's cycle are characterized as follows: - The first phase lasts about one quarter, driven by expectations, leading to rapid but short-lived gains - The second phase lasts about three quarters, driven by fundamental factors, where leading stocks rise first, followed by second and third-tier stocks - The third phase is a catch-up phase where leading stocks may stagnate while new technologies or changes drive localized market activity [6][7]